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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

THE TOP

With the House returning next week to take up the Democrats’ $3.5 trillion budget resolution, we thought this would be a good time to assess the House leadership. We’ll explore what they need to do during the next few weeks, what hurdles they’ll face and how they may try to clear them. We’ll look at Speaker Nancy Pelosi today, and then House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy tomorrow.

Pelosi — like Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer — faces an enormously difficult period the next few months, both legislatively and politically. Covid, the Jan. 6 investigation, the budget resolution and reconciliation package, infrastructure, the debt limit, government funding and voting rights are all on the to-do list for September alone. And that’s before the still-unfolding crisis in Afghanistan jumped to the top of the agenda for the White House and Congress.

As the House moves toward its most important votes of the year, Pelosi is in a stare down with Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) and a group of recalcitrant Democratic moderates. The moderates are threatening to oppose the Democrats’ budget resolution unless they first get a vote on the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure package passed by the Senate last week. As she has for months, Pelosi is refusing to hold any vote on that infrastructure bill until the Senate has passed the reconciliation package. That won’t be until October, at the earliest. House Democratic lawmakers and aides privately believe the moderates have gone too far, but at this point, the group isn’t backing down. With only a three-vote margin to play with, Pelosi will need this issue resolved before the House takes up the rule for the budget resolution on Monday night. 

There are some similarities to the schism inside the House Democratic Caucus now and that which occurred in 2009 and 2010, when the party’s factions were clashing over Obamacare. Yet at that point, there were also far more moderates and Blue Dogs than now, and Pelosi had a much bigger majority. So there’s a limit to how much room both she and the moderates have to operate. That plays in Pelosi’s favor, not the moderates. We’ll see how she handles it in the end.

Pelosi sent another “Dear Colleague” on Tuesday night reiterating her position. In the letter,  Pelosi played her biggest card in the dispute — she’s got Biden’s support for her plan.

“Today, President Biden endorsed the House Rule which will allow us to consider the budget resolution, H.R. 4 and the bipartisan infrastructure bill next week. The budget resolution is the key to unlocking the 51-vote privilege of the reconciliation path for our transformative Build Back Better bill. Again, any delay in passing the budget resolution could threaten our ability to pass this essential legislation through reconciliation.”

Meanwhile, Gottheimer and his crew can’t give in either if they want to be taken seriously in the future. If Gottheimer folds after such a loud public stand, it’ll diminish whatever influence he’s amassed. So he has to either stand pat or become another one of the members Pelosi rolls.

Despite this drama, and the political headwinds House Democrats face in 2022, Pelosi’s hold on the caucus remains as solid as ever — pretty much as it has been for the last generation. Very little happens inside the caucus that she doesn’t know about, and nothing can really move forward without her signing off on it. It’s the way Pelosi has worked it since she rose to the speaker’s chair for the first time in Jan. 2007, so there’s no reason for her to change now.

If Pelosi is leaving at the end of this term — and there has been enormous speculation about this — she’s not showing any signs of doing so. Convinced that they’re going to win the majority in Nov. 2022, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and his GOP colleagues have begun to refer to Pelosi as a “lame-duck speaker.” But no one inside the Democratic caucus sees it that way. And if they did, no House Democrat would publicly speculate about it.

WASHINGTON AND THE WORLD

Afghanistan collapse stuns U.S. allies in Europe and across globe

Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on KPIX in San Francisco yesterday that the House Foreign Affairs Committee will hold a hearing on Afghanistan next week with "the highest level officials in the Biden Administration." This will be the first public hearing about the withdrawal. 

From the Biden administration, via the White House pool: 

[On Tuesday], U.S. military flights evacuated approximately 1,100 U.S. citizens, U.S. permanent residents, and their families on 13 flights, 12 with C-17 sorties and one with a C-130. Now that we have established the flow, we expect those numbers to escalate.

We have evacuated more than 3,200 people so far, including our personnel. In addition to these more than 3,200 total evacuated, we have relocated nearly 2,000 Afghan special immigrants to the United States.

 The Coverage — this lineup is exceedingly bad for the White House:

→ NYT: “Biden Rattles U.K. With His Afghanistan Policy,” by Mark Landler in London: “‘He hasn’t just humiliated America’s Afghan allies,’ said Rory Stewart, a former British cabinet minister with lengthy experience in Afghanistan. ‘He’s humiliated his Western allies by demonstrating their impotence.’ … On Wednesday, Mr. Johnson will brief a Parliament recalled from summer recess about his government’s emergency plans to evacuate thousands of British nationals and offer sanctuary to Afghans who helped British soldiers and diplomats in their two decades of engagement there.

“He will also announce a plan to accept up to 5,000 refugees from Afghanistan, giving priority to women and girls who are at risk of persecution by the Taliban. The policy will allow for a long-term goal of 20,000 immigrants — a number that opposition leaders said was inadequate to the humanitarian threat unfolding there.”

→ NYT: “The Taliban’s Leaders: Worldly and ‘Inclusive’ or Ruthless Ideologues?” by Adam Nossiter, Carlotta Gall and Julian Barnes

→ WaPo: “Withdrawal from Afghanistan forces allies and adversaries to reconsider America’s global role,” by John Hudson and Missy Ryan

→ WaPo: “Russia sees potential cooperation with Taliban, but also prepares for the worst,” by Robyn Dixon in Moscow

→ WSJ: “Taliban Consolidate Control in Afghanistan’s Capital as Thousands Remain Stranded,” by Yaroslav Trofimov, Saeed Shah and Andrew Restuccia

→ WSJ: “U.S. Halted Dollar Shipments to Afghanistan to Keep Cash Out of Taliban’s Hands,” by Kate Davidson and Ian Talley

→ Politico Europe: “Disbelief and betrayal: Europe reacts to Biden’s Afghanistan ‘miscalculation,’” by Matthew Karnitschnig

→ FT: “Nato allies urge rethink on alliance after Biden’s ‘unilateral’ Afghanistan exit,” by Helen Warrell, Guy Chazan and Richard Milne

An interesting note: Check out this WSJ op-ed by former Vice President Mike Pence. Not mentioned directly — former President Donald Trump.

WHAT AMERICA IS WAKING UP TO

The nation’s front pages

VULNERABLE DEM WATCH

Endangered incumbents stay away from criticizing Biden on Afghanistan 

As the Afghanistan crisis unfolded this week, vulnerable Democrats — and those lawmakers running for other offices — are walking a fine line on the issue. They’re stuck between a need to express their dismay at the debacle in Kabul and their desire to avoid sharply criticizing President Joe Biden. 

As a result, reading their statements is an instructive exercise in how endangered lawmakers are trying to thread that needle. A common theme we noticed is Democrats saying they’re horrified about the situation in the Southwest Asian nation, which is followed immediately by an acknowledgement that the “blame game” should take place at some future, unspecified date.  

→ Rep. Chris Pappas (N.H.): “The scenes from Afghanistan are devastating and deeply concerning. Our first priority must be the immediate evacuation of U.S. citizens, SIV applicants, and our allies who stood beside us and whose lives are now in danger. There will be time to re-examine foreign policy failures over two decades that shaped today’s events. But now we must do all we can to ensure the safe return of Americans and our partners and honor the service of all those who deployed to Afghanistan and their families.”

→ Rep. Elaine Luria (Va.): “We must ultimately grapple with the failures that led to the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban, but today, in this moment, we must keep our focus on taking every possible measure to evacuate American citizens and our Afghan partners who fought bravely beside us for two decades.”

→ Rep. Cindy Axne (Iowa): “I’m deeply concerned at how quickly the situation in Afghanistan deteriorated over the past week – and hope to hear more from @POTUS today on what steps will be taken to ensure the safety of the U.S. forces and their Afghan partners still on the ground… There will be a time for us all to reflect on the decisions that were made that led us to this tragic and devastating moment, but right now we must stay focused on helping those who are still in harm’s way.”

→ Rep. Elissa Slotkin (Mich.): “Just finished receiving a briefing on Afghanistan from the Secretaries of State & Defense. There will be plenty of time to Monday morning quarterback, but right now, we need the airport in Kabul open to all traffic, including civilian charters. The US military must ensure the safety of that critical location.”

→ Rep. Stephanie Murphy (Fla.) also expressed regret for the situation and said the United States should have acted differently — without specifying an entity or leader to blame.

“The situation in Afghanistan is heartbreaking. I recognize there are no easy choices here, but the U.S. should have done more to prevent this worst-case scenario. Now we must do whatever we can to support our Afghan allies and protect our national security interests,” Murphy said.

→ Rep. Tim Ryan (Ohio) is running for Senate. He released a statement that singled out intelligence failures without mentioning Biden. 

“I have grave concerns about intelligence estimates of the strength of the Afghan military, the execution of the withdrawal, and what it means for our country going forward. For the safety of our troops, our country, and the Afghan people, it is absolutely critical that we understand where things went wrong so that we can prepare for the new reality on the ground,” Ryan said.

→ Rep. Val Demings (Fla.), another Democratic Senate candidate, released a five-tweet statement on Afghanistan that failed to mention Biden once. Instead, Demings praised the U.S. military and pledged to support national security personnel.

“Our immediate priority must be ensuring the safety and security of our troops, diplomats, aid workers, and the many Afghans who served with us. They were instrumental in supporting America and our allies, and we need to do everything we can for them,” Demings said. 

→ Rep. Jared Golden (Maine) stood out from the pack with his direct support — and referencing — of former President Donald Trump and Biden’s decisions to pull out from Afghanistan.

“As I have said publicly before, I supported the decision of first President Trump and now President Biden to bring our troops home from Afghanistan,” Golden said. “The rapid collapse of the Afghan National Army, however, has created a precarious situation, and I believe that the president should leave our troops on the ground at Kabul International Airport for as long as is necessary to ensure we get all American citizens out safely and to evacuate as many of our Afghan allies as possible.” 

Other Democrats, like Rep. Tom Malinowski (N.J.), have been more forceful. The New Jersey Democrat held a press conference urging the Biden administration to do all it could to evacuate Afghan partners and allies. 

The most biting reaction among Democrats has come from veteran lawmakers in safe seats. Sen. Robert Menendez (N.J.), the chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, labeled the American withdrawal a “flawed plan” and said he was “disappointed that the Biden administration clearly did not accurately assess the implications of a rapid U.S. withdrawal.”

Rep. Jim Langevin (R.I.) blasted the administration in a Foreign Policy op-ed, concluding the Kabul debacle was a “catastrophe” caused by Biden’s negligence.

Langevin: “This negligence was par for the course for the last U.S. administration. I am disappointed to see it now. At minimum, the Biden administration owed our Afghan allies of 20 years a real plan. They also owed it to our military service members and their families, particularly the men and women in uniform and their families who gave the ultimate sacrifice. Not to mention the women and girls of Afghanistan who are now experiencing a devastating new reality.”

Some incumbent senators facing tough reelection cycles also chimed in with more severe criticism. Sen. Mark Kelly (Ariz.) said the crisis showed “a failure to prepare.” Sen. Maggie Hassan (N.H.) said the Biden administration oversaw “a precipitous withdrawal with no real plan in place to ensure the peace and stability of Afghanistan and its people.” 

MOMENTS

9:30 a.m.: President Joe Biden will receive his daily intelligence briefing.

11 a.m.: Covid officials will brief. 

2:15 p.m.: Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris will get a Covid briefing.

4:30 p.m.: Biden will speak about Covid and vaccinations.

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “Pete Buttigieg says he and his husband, Chasten, are now parents,” by Katie Rogers

WaPo

→ “Alabama has ‘negative’ ICU beds free as U.S. hospitals struggle with surge of cases,” by Bryan Pietsch

WSJ

→ “U.S. Retail Sales Fell 1.1% in July as Spending Fell Across Categories,” by Amara Omeokwe

Texas Tribune

→ “Texas Gov. Greg Abbott tests positive for COVID-19,” by Patrick Svitek

AP

→ “DeSantis top donor invests in COVID drug governor promotes,” by Brendan Farrington

Politico

→ “‘Center of the maelstrom’: Election officials grapple with 2020’s long shadow,” by Zach Montellaro

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Editorial photos provided by Getty Images