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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

THE TOP

It’s one of those mornings where the morning is truly indistinguishable from the night before. So happy Tuesday — or something like that.

Monday was a bad day for Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Monday was a bad day for a group of moderate House Democrats looking to flex their muscles over President Joe Biden’s agenda. Monday was a mostly useless day for the House of Representatives — and foreshadows some longer-term problems for the Democratic power centers in the institution.

Background: The House is back in town to pass the $3.5 trillion budget resolution, which unlocks the 50-vote threshold in the Senate for Biden’s American Jobs Plan and American Families Plan. Democratic moderates wanted a vote on the $1 trillion bipartisan Senate infrastructure bill before approving the budget resolution. The moderates said they’d vote against the budget proposal without a vote on the public works plan — they wanted to get the infrastructure bill to the president’s desk. It was a pretty straightforward demand that they had made for weeks. The leadership was well aware of it, but thought the moderates would back down.

The Democrat leadership had planned for a procedural vote on the rule Monday night and a vote on the budget resolution today. Simple enough, but no.

Despite warnings that this entire situation was going haywire, Pelosi and the moderate group — led by Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) — only truly started negotiating Monday evening.

The two sides spent all evening talking and they couldn’t even manage to get to a vote on the rule, the procedural resolution which sets up debate. Pelosi tried to strong arm the group into voting for the budget by embedding it in the rule; the mods predictably said, “No thanks.” 

The moderates’ ranks grew when Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-Fla.) publicly backed their position, showing things were going poorly for the leadership.

But the mods are in the process of folding. The moderate group began the day negotiating for a vote on infrastructure before the budget resolution. They ended the day seeking a date certain for a vote on the infrastructure bill, a significant departure from their previous position, yet predictable for this clutch of lawmakers.

The leadership is now somewhat confident that they will be able to go to the floor early this afternoon with the rule, the budget and, embedded somewhere within, the promise that the House will vote on the infrastructure bill by sometime in September.

So, let’s break this down.

Power — Who gains here, and what did they gain?

→ Let’s not go crazy, this was one day; the power structures of the House weren’t significantly altered. We can make the case that progressives and much of the leadership (read Pelosi) are running out of patience with the moderates. But moderates and progressives are making similar demands. Progressives want to delay a final vote on the Senate infrastructure bill because they think the moderates will vote against social spending once they get “hard” infrastructure passed. The moderates want infrastructure first because they want it signed into law before getting into what will be difficult negotiations over the massive $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill. Both are legitimate and thoughtful calculations made by (mostly) savvy pols.

People — What have we learned about the power centers in the Democratic Caucus?

→ Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her leadership team: Fair to say they misplayed their hand here. Pelosi didn’t start talking to Gottheimer’s crew in earnest until yesterday. The leadership thought the centrists would fold, and they were wrong. Rank-and-file Democrats often talk big and then balk at getting into a real showdown with Pelosi. That didn’t happen here. Several aides told us this could’ve been solved with a Pelosi-Gottheimer call a week or so ago. However, the moderates extracted precious little, so Pelosi’s team will count that as a victory. 

→ Gottheimer and the moderates: They wanted a vote on the Senate infrastructure bill now, before the budget resolution, and they aren’t going to get that. There’s no amount of spin that can paper that over. They folded. If the moderates get a date certain for a vote on infrastructure in September or by Oct. 1, is that something? Sure — we guess! It would achieve one goal: ensuring that the Senate infrastructure bill doesn’t get delayed for months. But what if progressives don’t like how the larger reconciliation talks are going by the time the Senate  infrastructure bill comes to the floor? Then the infrastructure bill will be in serious jeopardy in the House. Plus, this date-certain play by the mods scrambles Republicans’ considerations. Upwards of a dozen GOP lawmakers were considering voting for infrastructure if it came up this month. The later it gets, the more tenuous that support becomes.

Politics and policy — How does this impact governing?

→ September only gets worse: As of now, it looks like the Senate infrastructure bill will be kicked to September, right into a massive stew of must-pass bills. Congress will be considering government funding and the debt limit — both critical, deadline-driven pieces of legislation. Democrats will be working on reconciliation, which committees must produce by a soft Sept. 15 deadline. If you asked us yesterday morning what the worst outcome would be for infrastructure, we would’ve said: “Kick it into September.” Bad. Stupid.

→ You think this is hard? Wait until reconciliation. Remember, this was supposed to be the easy part. This was a vote on a procedural motion to bring up the budget. Democrats control the House and the Senate.  We’re not even at the really hard stuff yet! Wait until moderate House Democrats have to vote on a multi-trillion dollar tax increase in a couple of weeks, coupled with hundreds of billions of dollars in new social program spending. That’s going to make this vote look easy.

How about the debt limit and government funding? Remember those? It will be interesting to see how Democrats handle those items.

Pelosi left the building this morning at around 12:15 a.m. She exited her office through the first floor of the Capitol — she has multiple exits, and she’s aided by a large Capitol Police detail that could usher her in any direction.

Pelosi seemed to be on the phone with House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) as she left, and here’s how our conversation went with her.

Pelosi: “Mr. Hoyer is sending out a notice that we’re coming back tomorrow, and we will take up the rule at 12 o’clock noon. … We will have a briefing at 10:30 on Afghanistan — that’s why 12 o’clock. In case you want to know, we have a caucus at nine, we have Afghanistan at 10:30 and we have this at 12 o’clock.”

Jake: “Is there a date certain that you’re discussing for the infrastructure legislation?”

Pelosi: “Well we’ll see tomorrow, won’t we now?”

So Pelosi wouldn’t even publicly commit to the date certain for an infrastructure vote as of just a few hours ago. We will see — indeed. Democrats will caucus at 9 a.m to discuss the path forward.

AFGHANISTAN UPDATE

Lots of news on Afghanistan

First, via the White House: 21,600 people have been evacuated from Kabul in the last 24 hours, bringing the total to 58,700 evacuated.

Anecdotally, every House member we talked to on Monday — maybe a dozen or so — said they were submitting applications for Special Immigrant Visas for potential Afghan evacuees. From military spouses to the families of U.S. contractors, member offices were preparing dozens, hundreds, sometimes even thousands of applications. One member told us he was informed that they had 72 hours left to submit applications.

Second, big scoop from John Hudson of the Washington Post: “CIA Director William Burns held secret meeting in Kabul with Taliban leader Abdul Ghani Baradar”

What the administration is telling Congress: Officials from the State Department, Pentagon and the Joint Chiefs of Staff briefed Hill aides Monday about the situation in Afghanistan — and shared some grim statistics.

There’s already a 50,000-person backlog for visas for non-governmental organization workers, the officials said, according to multiple sources. Fifty-thousand — let that sink in.

Furthermore, the officials told Capitol Hill aides that the system by which U.S. forces are evacuating people from the country is a bit confusing, with entry points at the Kabul airport constantly shifting and evacuees confused about where they’re supposed to go.

Ft. Dix and Ft. McGuire in New Jersey and Ft. Bliss in Texas will all be used for housing and resettling Afghans, Hill aides were told. We’re curious to see how the Texas GOP congressional delegation reacts to this.

Third, what Joe Biden’s allies on the Hill are saying: Late Monday, House Intelligence Chairman Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) laid it all on the line, undermining the Biden administration’s talking points on the crisis. These quotes are from our friends Ryan Nobles and Jeremy Herb at CNN.

Schiff: "The intelligence agencies’ assessments of the Afghan government’s ability to maintain itself became increasingly pessimistic over the course of the last six months. And there were any number of warnings that the Taliban might take over…” including a rapid collapse of the Ghani government.

Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo.), another Intelligence Committee member, added, “I do not believe, sitting here today, that I have any evidence of an intelligence failure.”

Both Democrats said Aug. 31 is an unrealistic deadline for withdrawing U.S. troops from Kabul.

Schiff and Crow’s comments undermine one of the central arguments of the White House — that no one could have predicted how fast things would fall apart following a U.S. withdrawal. This will be a huge focus of any congressional hearings down the road.

The Coverage

→ WaPo’s Missy Ryan, Anne Gearan, Karoun Demirjian and Dan Lamothe: “Biden faces pressure to extend Afghanistan evacuation mission as Taliban warns against doing so”

JAN. 6 UPDATE

Thompson to seek phone records for "several hundred people" in 1/6 probe

CNN first reported on Monday that Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) and the Jan. 6 select committee were interested in the “phone records of several people, including members of Congress.”

But Thompson later indicated to us that the panel’s ambitions are far broader than that, giving a sign of just how big a political and legal fight is looming here.

“I can tell you we’ll look at everything that will give us information on what happened on Jan. 6,” Thompson said as he walked into a Democratic Caucus meeting. “Well, we’ll look at all records at some point. It won’t be tomorrow. The letters won’t go out tomorrow or anything like that.” 

Thompson was referring here to letters the select panel will send to telecommunication companies and social media companies requesting such records, the first step in an investigation. Subpoenas will eventually be issued in order to obtain the records.

But here’s the eye-opening line from Thompson: “We have an exhaustive list. I won’t tell you who they are, but it’s several hundred people that make up the list of individuals that we plan to contact.”

Thompson indicated the panel would decide on its targets by the end of this week, although he didn’t provide a timetable or itinerary for the select committee’s next hearing.

“Several hundred people” could include anyone from members to staffers to White House officials to private citizens to journalists. We’re not sure at this point what Thompson’s universe includes.Thompson didn’t mention House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy or other Republican lawmakers, but a number of them spoke with former President Donald Trump on the day of the attack on the Capitol.

DEPT. OF CREDIT TAKING

Stefanik takes a victory lap on Cuomo’s resignation

Rep. Elise Stefanik, the New York Republican who serves as House GOP conference chair, was one of the first people to call for Andrew Cuomo to resign. And now, she’s taking a victory lap.

MOMENTS

8 a.m.: President Joe Biden will get the daily intelligence briefing.

8:30 a.m.: Biden will get an update on Afghanistan. 

9 a.m.: House Democrats will caucus.

9:30 a.m.: Biden will meet with G7 leaders about Afghanistan.’

10:30 a.m.: House briefing on Afghanistan

11:45 a.m.: House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and top committee Republicans will talk about Afghanistan. 

Noon: Biden will speak about “ongoing efforts in Afghanistan to evacuate American citizens, SIV applicants and their families, and other vulnerable Afghans, and his meeting with fellow G7 leaders on how our nations can come together in support of the Afghan people”

1 p.m.: Jen Psaki will brief reporters.

1:30 p.m.: House Democratic Caucus Chair Hakeem Jeffries and Vice Chair Pete Aguilar will talk to reporters.

2 p.m.: The Covid team will brief reporters.

CLIP FILE

Bloomberg’s Jenny Leonard (@jendeben): “Update from Singapore: The @VP’s departure has been delayed for an unknown reason. We were supposed to take off for Hanoi at 4pm local and after holding in the motorcade for 40 minutes, were told to go back to our hotel rooms we no longer had room keys to.”  Bloomberg

NYT

→ “​​In Southeast Asia, Kamala Harris’s Message: You Can Count on the U.S.,” by Zolan Kanno-Youngs in Singapore

→ “Taliban Reject Extended Deadline as U.S. Races to Finish Evacuation,” by Mark Landler and Megan Stack

→ “Kathy Hochul Is Sworn In as New York’s First Female Governor,” by Luis Ferré-Sadurní

→ “In Shift, Israel Quietly Allows Jewish Prayer on Temple Mount,” by Patrick Kingsley and Adam Rasgon in Jerusalem

WaPo

→ “Taliban sends hundreds of fighters to final province beyond its control,” by Steve Hendrix and Susannah George in Doha, Rachel Pannett in Sydney and Haq Nawaz Khan in Peshawar, Pakistan

WSJ

→ "Stock Futures Point to S&P 500 Notching New Record,” by Will Horner

→ "U.S. Crops Wither Under Scorching Heat,” by Kirk Maltais

LAT

→ “Attorney general forces Bakersfield to reform troubled police department," by Richard Winton

AP

→ “G-7 grapples with Afghanistan, an afterthought not long ago,” by Matthew Lee

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