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NEW DATA: Oxford Economics finds Durbin-Marshall Credit Card Mandates would hurt local economies, costing $227 billion and 156,000 jobs across the country.
Happy Wednesday afternoon.
We’re in the middle of a recess week before the mad July dash. So it’s a perfect time to dig deeper into some of the key results from our most recent edition of The Canvass: K Street.
When we launched The Canvass, we saw it as a way to put top figures in D.C. on truth serum. We granted them anonymity to share their views and the views of their bosses – and we have unearthed out a lot that has surprised us. It’s quite difficult to peel back the veil of D.C., and that’s what we are trying to do. Our Capitol Hill and K Street surveys take the pulse of senior congressional aides in the leadership and rank and file, and top figures downtown. We compile this data with The Locust Street Group, our non-partisan polling partner.
As we gather more data in the coming months, we’ll continue to compare and contrast the sentiment on Capitol Hill and on K Street, with a goal of helping you get a 180-degree view of Washington.
We are going to cover a bunch of different topics today. We have fresh data on the skepticism with which downtown Democrats view the Biden administration and the difference in views between Capitol Hill and K Street.
We’ve rolled out some topline results in the AM editions this week. But we have a lot of exclusive data for Punchbowl News premium subscribers: The full poll. The one pager. And here is a handy summary of our key findings.
Enjoy, and always feel free to email us with thoughts or questions.
– Jake Sherman and Christian Hall
THE DEMOCRATS
With friends like these: K Street Dems sour on Biden and the party’s prospects
Here’s an interesting trend we noticed in this month’s data: K Street Democrats are not too hot on President Joe Biden’s and Democrats’ legislative plans and their party’s prospects in 2022.
Check it out:
→ | Just 7% of Democrats we polled say the Biden administration has been effective at “communicating its plans and efforts to reduce inflation.” A stunning 86% of our respondents say the administration has been ineffective. |
→ | 43% of Democrats we polled believe that clean energy tax credits and investments will help reduce inflation. There has been a major push from Democrats on Capitol Hill to include tax breaks for green projects in a reconciliation bill. |
→ | 42% of our Democratic respondents believe building more than a million units of housing would help tamp down inflation. The Biden administration proposed this in May. |
→ | 39% of Democrats told us that they believe reducing the deficit would help inflation. Biden has been keen to point out that he has cut back on the government’s red ink. |
→ | Democrats believe the economy is going to be stagnant from now until Election Day. Just 34% say they believe the economy will improve. |
→ | And, perhaps most importantly, K Street Democrats are down on their party’s prospects in 2022. Just 1% of downtown Democrats believe that they will keep control of the House in 2022. |
As a point of comparison, in our last Canvass survey of Capitol Hill in May, 68% of Democrats said they thought the party would keep control of Congress. The difference in expectations here is gigantic.
– Jake Sherman and Christian Hall
YOU’RE INVITED!
Events galore throughout the month of July
We have a busy July ahead with virtual events, in-person events, and of course a members-only Brown Bag Lunch. We hope to see you on screen or in person at the events below.
→ | Tuesday, July 12 at 9 a.m. ET: Join us for a virtual conversation with Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Calif.) to discuss how Washington is looking to regulate capital markets and financial reporting in an effort to maintain trust in a changing economy. RSVP here! |
→ | Wednesday, July 20 at 7:45 a.m. ET: Join us for our interview with Sens. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Ben Cardin (D-Md.) at Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Businesses Advocacy Day at Nationals Park. We’ll be talking to Rubio and Cardin about the challenges facing small business owners coming out of the pandemic. RSVP here! |
→ | Thursday, July 21 at 12:00 p.m. ET: Join us for our members-only July Brown Bag Lunch with Jake, Anna, Bres and Heather. RSVP here! |
→ | Wednesday, July 27 at 9 a.m. ET: Join us for a virtual conversation with Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) We’ll be talking to him about the importance of privacy and security in existing and new technologies. RSVP here! |
THE GULF
K Street and Capitol Hill split on the cause of inflation
This caught our eye when we were reviewing this month’s Canvass: K Street survey. 46% of Capitol Hill staffers blame President Joe Biden for inflation, while just 37% of K Streeters do. This isn’t a huge delta, but it was still notable to us. Aides on Capitol Hill are often caught up in the partisan tumult of Congress, while leaders on K Street have a bit more distance from the day-to-day brawling.
Another interesting datapoint: 12% of Capitol Hill aides say corporations are to blame for inflation, while just 5% of respondents in our K Street survey shared that view. Those who work downtown, obviously, oftentimes work for or interact much more closely with corporate interests.

– Jake Sherman and Christian Hall
LEADER LOOK
And two last nuggets:
K Streeters overwhelmingly believe House Democratic Caucus Chair Hakeem Jeffries will be Democratic leader when Speaker Nancy Pelosi leaves. This tracks with our Capitol Hill survey.

And the Hill and downtown agree that House Minority Whip Steve Scalise is next up behind House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy.

Editorial photos provided by Getty Images

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Presented by The Electronic Payments Coalition
NEW DATA: Oxford Economics finds Durbin-Marshall Credit Card Mandates would hurt local economies, costing $227 billion and 156,000 jobs across the country.