The Archive

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

Welcome to The Tally, the beginning of Punchbowl News’ coverage of the 2022 midterm elections. This installment is focused on the battle for the House. Next week, we’ll focus on the Senate.

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KEY RACE MAP

Needless to say, House Democrats are facing an uphill battle in 2022. All we have to do is look at history to understand that the president’s party almost always loses seats in the first midterm elections of their first term. See the 2018 Blue Wave and the 2010 Tea Party revolt for the most recent examples of this phenomenon. And with a razor-thin margin of control — only five seats — it won’t take too much to tip the House back into GOP hands.

Since 1946, only two presidents — Bill Clinton in 1998 and George W. Bush in 2002 — saw their party gain seats in the midterm elections. And those were under extraordinary circumstances of a presidential impeachment and the fallout from the 9/11 attacks.

With the country so deeply polarized, control of the House has also become more difficult to hold onto. Democrats famously ran the chamber for 40 years in the post-World War II era. That ended with the 1994 Republican Revolution. The House has changed hands three times since then — 2006, 2010 and 2018. The number of seats up for grabs is so historically small — coupled with the growing ability of both parties to nationalize battleground races —  that it’s easier to tip the chamber from red to blue, or back again.

The outlook is even worse for House Democrats given their narrow majority. Democrats currently hold 220 seats, while Republicans have 212 members. By the end of January, that ratio will grow to 222-213, due to open seats being filled after special elections. Based on the pattern of recent election cycles, the GOP is likely to pick up more than enough seats to reclaim the majority. Redistricting will also benefit Republicans, although probably not as much as they’d once hoped.

For their part, House Democrats claim historical comparisons are inadequate. They point to the broadly popular provisions included in the American Rescue Plan and the nationwide economic recovery. The surge in job growth and the new Child Tax Credit are creating a different electoral landscape, Democrats argue.

Democrats are also trying to conjure up 2022 as a “battle for the soul of the nation.” They say voters will choose between the party delivering on economic issues or the party of chaos (wasn’t that the 2020 election theme?) But can this work without former President Donald Trump in office?

Although Republicans are feeling good about their chances of winning back the House, their current close proximity to the majority and the relatively small number of battleground seats means the likelihood of a wave is low. 

The more interesting question is how big the GOP majority will be. Will it be a 20-seat buffer, which gives Kevin McCarthy an easy route to the speaker’s chair? Or will it be a slim, 10-seat or under majority, which could hand a path to another Republican contender?

As we’ve been crafting The Tally, news of Rep. Ron Kind’s (D-Wis.) retirement sent shockwaves through politics. If there was ever a sign Democrats were in huge trouble, it’s this.

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See what’s included for our premium subscribers

→ Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats for Democrats and Republicans heading into the 2022 midterms. 

→ Historical midterm performance for members of the president’s party.

→ Key races we’re watching across the country, including profiles of vulnerable GOP and Democratic members.

→ PLUS, who Republican staffers predict will be the 2024 GOP Presidential nominee (hint, it’s not Trump) and what the majority of members think about inflation.