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BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN Welcome to The Tally, part of Punchbowl News’ coverage of the 2022 midterm elections. This installment is focused on the battle for control of the Senate. Last week, we focused on the House. We spoke to top House and Senate operatives for this report on deep background — meaning we can use the information but not name the sources. You’re receiving this sneak peek of premium content because you are among our most engaged group of Punchbowl AM readers. If you like what you read, consider becoming a premium member to receive future editions of The Tally and more exclusive premium content every week. — Team Punchbowl News KEY RACE MAP The Senate is locked in a historic 50-50 tie, meaning the election in 2022 will help decide who’s in control on Capitol Hill. There will be 34 Senate seats up for grabs in next year’s midterm elections, although only a fraction of those will be truly competitive. Big-money races are on deck in key battleground states including Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. As we write this — 441 days out from Election Day — the battle for the Senate remains in an unusually fluid state, especially considering how deep into the cycle we are. A number of high-profile GOP senators haven’t formally announced whether they’re running yet, and candidates are still jumping into key primaries in both parties. Republicans are also dueling over their loyalty to former President Donald Trump, who’s still effectively the head of their party. In some states, you may see a Trump-backed candidate face off with a Mitch McConnell pick. Historically, midterms are punishing for the party that controls the presidency. Yet the conventional wisdom on Capitol Hill is that Senate Democrats have a decent shot at claiming an outright majority next year. The Senate map favors Democrats, and they’re raising huge amounts of cash in swing races. Democrats are also taking advantage of Republican retirements in battleground states. And then there’s the “Trump factor.” He will play a big role in some GOP primaries, and Senate hopefuls have flocked to Mar-a-Lago to try to win his endorsement. But as with everything Trump, it’s a double-edged sword. Getting Trump’s backing may help a candidate win a Republican primary, but it’s also sure to help Democrats rally their own base for the general election. A big issue to watch: Top Republicans including Senate Minority Whip John Thune of South Dakota, Chuck Grassley of Iowa and Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska haven’t officially announced whether they’ll run again. These states should be safely red, yet it will cost the party money if any of them do retire, especially Grassley, who turns 88 in several weeks. Trump is trying to knock off Murkowski, who voted to impeach him following the deadly Jan. 6 Capitol insurrection. And in Wisconsin, perhaps the best Democratic pickup opportunity of the cycle, Republicans don’t know if Sen. Ron Johnson will seek a third term. Recent remarks by the enigmatic senator could be interpreted either way. Pennsylvania and North Carolina, where GOP Sens. Pat Toomey and Richard Burr are retiring, will be huge races. President Joe Biden won Pennsylvania last November, and Democrats hope to repeat to keep those states blue next year. But tough races lay in store for vulnerable Democratic incumbents. Sens. Mark Kelly (Ariz.), Raphael Warnock (Ga.), Catherine Cortez Masto (Nev.) and Maggie Hassan (N.H.) all are at risk of being knocked off by well-funded GOP challengers. Biden won all of these states in 2020 — but several by the smallest of margins. WANT TO READ MORE? See what’s included for our premium subscribers → Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats for Democrats and Republicans heading into the 2022 midterms. → Historical midterm performance for members of the president’s party. → Key races we’re watching across the country, including profiles of vulnerable GOP and Democratic senators. → PLUS, what Republican staffers think of a Trump campaign endorsement and who was named the biggest rising star of the Democratic freshman class. JOIN THE PUNCHBOWL NEWS COMMUNITY Want to receive our next edition of The Tally? Become a premium member of Punchbowl News today to receive all of our members-only content and updates coming out of Washington. Subscribe today! |
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