House Republicans shouldn’t have to worry about Florida’s 6th District special election on April 1. It’s a deep-red seat that former Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.) won by 33 points five months ago before decamping for the Trump administration.
But many GOP officials are concerned that Republican candidate Randy Fine’s lackluster fundraising and sky-high Democratic enthusiasm could put the race in uncomfortably close territory.
Fine, a GOP state legislator, has raised just under $1 million since entering the race and has just $93,000 on hand. Meanwhile, Democratic candidate Josh Weil has brought in a stunning $9 million and has $1.2 million on hand.
The money situation has gotten so dire for Fine that we’re told he’s been calling GOP House members, pleading for funds.
“He needs to do better,” NRCC Chair Richard Hudson said of Fine.
Democrats tell us they aren’t expecting to come close to flipping the seat blue.
But if Weil — who has effectively seized on liberal engagement to raise astonishing amounts of money — keeps Fine’s expected victory to the low double digits, then the party can credibly claim a groundswell of support in an ultra-conservative seat. That doesn’t augur well for House Republicans heading into 2026, and it could make some upcoming votes even tougher for swing seat House GOP lawmakers.
“These are races that should not, under ordinary circumstances, be on anyone’s political radar. They are safe Republican seats that Donald Trump won by more than 30 points,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said. “The American people are not buying what the Republicans are selling.”
Fine didn’t start spending on TV ads until last week, while Weil has been on the air since the opening days of March.
The NRCC doesn’t plan to dump any money into the race. Hudson said he was confident that Fine would win.
“I would have preferred it if our candidate had raised money at a faster rate and got on TV quicker, but he’s doing what he needs to do,” Hudson said. “He’s on TV now. We’re going to win the seat. I’m not concerned at all.”
The real fear for Republicans is that a large Democratic overperformance in the 6th District will fuel liberal narratives that 2026 is gearing up to be a big, 2018-style wave election. Democrats used anti-Trump fervor that year to win more than 40 seats and seize control of the House.
It’s important to note that special elections have favored Democrats in recent times. The party can count on its base of educated, fired-up activists to get involved and dump money in. And normally, the party out of power overperforms the fundamentals in off-year races. Just look at Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) and former Rep. Conor Lamb’s (D-Pa.) results in red-leaning House seats in 2017 and 2018.
But while those seats were truly in play — Ossoff narrowly fell short while Lamb won — Weil doesn’t have a good shot of winning. But the story of how close Florida’s 6th District race could get is arguably more important than the final result itself.
