More than $35 million has been spent so far on TV and digital advertising in California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s redistricting fight — with much more to come.
And $20.5 million of that spending has been in favor of the ballot initiative, known as California Proposition 50, which would allow the Golden State’s legislature to redraw the congressional map in a way that could net Democrats five House districts.
Meanwhile, the campaign against the ballot initiative has spent $14.8 million, per AdImpact. That leaves a pretty big edge for supporters of the ballot measure.
California voters will decide Nov. 4 whether or not to pause their independent redistricting commission for the rest of the decade. This vote could very well determine who controls the House in 2027. Texas Republicans have already passed a new map that could give them five more seats.
This is just a fraction of what both parties plan to spend on TV for the California initiative, although the messaging war will be key.
The Democratic message. Newsom’s group is attempting to nationalize the race and turn it into a referendum on President Donald Trump. Their ads make an appeal to voters to “stop Trump, restore checks and balances” and push back on his “election rigging.”
One spot even notes that former President Barack Obama endorsed Prop 50. Another Spanish-language ad features Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.). Newsom is, of course, also featured heavily in ads.
Here’s one pro-Prop 50 ad:
“We can’t stand back and watch this democracy disappear district by district all across this country. We’re giving the power to the people. On November 4th, you have the power to stand up to Trump.”
The Republican message. These ads tout California’s independent redistricting commission as a paragon of good government and a guardrail to keep politicians from choosing their voters.
The spots try to keep the focus local. California voters approved the independent commission via ballot initiative in 2010. And it is largely popular.
Opponents of Prop 50 want to remind voters of that and promote the “thousands of hours” the commission puts in to determine fair districts.
Here’s an example of an anti-Prop 50 ad:
“Prop 50 is a direct attack on democracy, a dangerous idea that tears away the power of choice. Protect your vote and democracy. Vote no.”
This is just the start. Tens of millions of advertising dollars will flood California’s airwaves before Nov. 4.
