Republicans were already antsy about the midterms. Then the Tennessee special election happened.
Republican Matt Van Epps beat Democrat Aftyn Behn by nine points in a seat Trump won overwhelmingly in 2024, stoking fears that the GOP may be in for a brutal 2026. The worst-case scenario next year: sky-high Democratic turnout combined with MAGA voters staying home since President Donald Trump isn’t on the ballot.
“Trump won in that district by 22%. We won by nine and we poured a lot of money in there,” Sen. Jim Justice (R-W.Va.) said. “We’ve got to realize that there’s too many indicators that the midterms are coming and we should all be concerned for the Republican side.”
The Trump drop-off? Republicans are also coming to terms with a post-Trump political landscape where the party can no longer rely on the president’s coattails to win majorities.
Memories of 2018 and 2022 are still fresh in Republicans’ minds. In those years, low-propensity Trump voters stayed home and Democratic turnout skyrocketed.
“[Trump’s] not going to be on the ballot in the midterm for 2026, so that ought to be of concern for a lot of Republicans,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who is up for reelection next year.
Conservative commentator Tim Carney articulated this argument in a recent op-ed that attracted the attention of top Senate GOP offices. “When Trump isn’t on the ballot, the Trump era is a story of GOP loss,” Carney wrote.
Messaging whiplash. While most Republicans we spoke to maintained that a win is a win when it comes to the Tennessee special, it’s clear the party isn’t yet aligned on a 2026 midterm message despite the Democratic beatdown in November.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune said we shouldn’t “read too much” into the House special but added Republicans “have to sharpen our message.”
“[We need to] make sure that we’re giving people a reason to vote for us in the midterms next year,” Thune said.
Trump’s approval rating is sinking, in part due to voters being upset over rising costs. Senate Republicans up for reelection in 2026 are taking note.
“What I’m focused on is affordability. I’m doing everything I can to bring the cost of health care down,” Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) said. “We need to bring down the cost of housing… Childcare is a big issue.”
Trump, meanwhile, said “the word affordability is a con job by the Democrats” during a Cabinet meeting this week.
