Is it Democrats’ turn for a Tea Party?
A disillusioned base. Furor at party leadership. A nationwide reckoning over the age and mental fitness of elected officials. All these make it a perilous primary season for Democratic incumbents.
A crazy stat. Nearly two-thirds of House Democrats seeking reelection in 2026 have a primary challenger, according to a Punchbowl News analysis of candidate filings. Not all of these candidates are serious or well-funded. But that’s a big enough portion to make it noteworthy.
For comparison, roughly 45% of Democratic incumbents saw a primary challenge in the 2022 midterms.
“When I did it, it was very frowned upon. No one would talk to me. I was ostracized. People thought it was career-ending to run,” said Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), who ousted a fellow Democrat in 2016. “But now I think people see that, ‘No, we need new blood.’”
There are clear signs of danger ahead. Two Democratic incumbents in Texas were pushed into May primary runoffs. Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-N.C.) eked out a win by less than 1,200 votes over a left-wing challenger.
Serious risk. Privately, top Democratic operatives believe at least a dozen incumbents are at serious risk of losing renomination this year. Among the most endangered: Reps. Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.), Steve Cohen (D-Tenn.), Diana DeGette (D-Colo.), Doris Matsui (D-Calif.), David Scott (D-Ga.), Shri Thanedar (D-Mich.) and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Fla.), who is facing a House Ethics investigation and a federal indictment.
In Q1 of this year, primary challengers outraised about a dozen House Democrats, including Reps. John Larson (D-Conn.), Brad Sherman (D-Calif.), Scott, Cohen and Thanedar.
“You can’t ignore the fact that there’s a winds for change movement out there, but I think it’s still a case-by-case basis,” Larson told us.
Justice Democrats, a leftist organization that has endorsed several challengers to incumbents, epitomizes the angst among anti-establishment Democrats. There’s Sacramento City Councilmember Mai Vang, whose run against Matsui has forced the longtime incumbent to advertise. And Michigan state Rep. Donavan McKinney, who has united both Detroit’s Black leaders and Michigan progressives for his run against Thanedar.
Top Democrats are less worried about Reps. Adriano Espaillat (D-N.Y.), Stephen Lynch (D-Mass.), Wesley Bell (D-Mo.), Ed Case (D-Hawaii) and Grace Meng (D-N.Y.). Some, like Case and Lynch, face biennial challenges. Others, like Espaillat, have been taking new threats seriously.
Publicly at least, most incumbents express confidence.
“I don’t think that voters want tall members, short members, bald members, hairy members. I think they want members that do a good job,” said Sherman, who has a strong challenge from former Biden administration official Jake Levine.
Sherman said voters “should decide who’s doing the best job, not who’s the best looking.”
“Of course, if they want to vote for me because of how good-looking I am, they’re welcome to do so,” the incumbent quipped.
