Progressives are finally feeling hopeful about their ability to take on AIPAC after years of drowning under an avalanche of the group’s campaign spending.
The left notched a major win in a New Jersey special election this week after former Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-N.J.) conceded a still too-close-to-call election to Analilia Mejia.
AIPAC’s super PAC spent over $2 million opposing Malinowski’s comeback bid. That AIPAC spending blitz against Malinowski — combined with a surge of grassroots support — opened up a path to victory for Mejia, even though she spent a mere $110,000 on ads, per AdImpact.
Since AIPAC jumped into the super PAC game in 2021, the group has enjoyed sweeping success in boosting their preferred candidates to victory. Their tidal wave of spending has at times left progressives despondent about ever finding a way to compete with the pro-Israel lobby.
But key players on the left hope Mejia’s victory is the beginning of a sea change. And it could come at a crucial moment as AIPAC has vowed to spend big in primaries during the 2026 cycle. The pro-Israel group or its allies are already engaged in a slew of open-seat races in Illinois.
“Among Democratic primary voters, AIPAC itself is toxic,” Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Wis.) said, describing the rising death tolls in Gaza. “Now definitely people look at that money as negative. And if you have that money, then you have to start answering more questions.”
Israel’s brutal military campaign in Gaza in the wake of the deadly Oct. 7 terrorist attacks by Hamas has led to skyrocketing disapproval of Israel among Democrats, especially younger voters.
In Democratic primaries nationwide, labeling Israel’s actions in Gaza a genocide has become a new progressive litmus test. An increasing number of Democratic lawmakers are vowing to boycott any AIPAC donations, including some who had previously accepted donations from the group.
“AIPAC greatly underestimates how unpopular their policy positions have become in the country,” said Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas), the chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus.
AIPAC, however, remains undeterred. The group said it anticipated Mejia’s win as a possible outcome of trying to defeat Malinowksi. AIPAC said it’s closely monitoring the June primary in the 11th District and may back a candidate who can serve a full term in the next Congress.
AIPAC spokesperson Deryn Sousa said the group will be “very active” this cycle supporting Democrats and Republicans “who strengthen the U.S.-Israel partnership and opposing those — of either party — who may seek to undermine it.”
Reality check. Mejia won a special primary election for a safely Democratic seat in North Jersey that Mikie Sherrill vacated when she won the governorship. The election was on a tightly condensed timeline and held on a Thursday. There are plenty of reasons why it’s risky to draw broad conclusions from the strange set of circumstances.
There were a bevy of Democratic candidates in the race, making it hard to predict who would benefit most from votes knocked away from Malinowski by AIPAC. Mejia had endorsements from Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), but she greatly trailed other candidates in spending.
AIPAC used the race to draw a clear red line. The group had supported Malinowski in the past but said they opposed him because he expressed a willingness to condition aid to Israel.
Mejia has taken positions the group opposes far more. She indicated that she believes Israel is committing genocide in Gaza.
The AIPAC-funded ads attacking Malinowski, however, centered on ICE, not Israel.
Rep. Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.) noted those ads “show that progressive messaging works.”
“They spent $2 million on an ad talking about ICE, not about any other issues. I think that even further pushes our point,” Frost said. “We’ll be using this race as a prime example to go out and raise more money to elect more progressives.”
