News: We’ve got some fresh polling on California’s redistricting ballot initiative ahead of the Nov. 4 election. And it’s good news for Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom.
A majority of California voters, 54%, said they support Proposition 50, which would enact a mid-decade redistricting of the state’s congressional map, according to a survey from the firm co/efficient, shared first with Punchbowl News. A significantly smaller share, 36%, said they oppose it.
House Democrats’ prospects of retaking the majority next year hinge heavily on Prop 50. They desperately need a counterweight to Republicans’ redistricting in Texas, and California is the best positioned blue state to do so. But unlike Texas, Newsom has to ask the voters to cede redistricting authority to the legislature in order to pass a map that could net Democrats five additional seats.
This isn’t an easy lift. Voters like the idea of independent redistricting. Only 12% said they trust the legislature most to do redistricting and 35% said they trust the existing commission the most.
But this survey suggests California voters are more persuaded by the Democratic case for Prop 50 than the GOP arguments against it.
The ad wars. The pollster tested the arguments each party is using in their TV advertising campaigns. Voters said they were between 46% and 57% more likely to back Prop 50 after hearing the various Democratic pitches for it.
The pitches: Prop 50 would help California stand up to President Donald Trump and stop Trump from rigging the midterms. It is backed by Newsom and former President Barack Obama.
But voters were only 37% to 44% less likely to back Prop 50 after hearing the GOP arguments against it. Those arguments stressed that Prop 50 would create a dangerous precedent, undermine democracy and add millions of dollars in costs to taxpayers.
Newsom and his allies are eager to nationalize the race, framing it as a way to counter Trump. In the survey, Trump’s approval rating is deep underwater at 60% unfavorable to just 35% favorable. For their part, Republicans are trying to keep it local, reminding voters that the independent commission is good governance.
When read the exact language that will be on the Nov. 4 ballot, 56% of voters said they would vote yes, while 39% said they would vote no.
One very clear trend from the data: the ad campaign is breaking through. Combined TV, radio and digital ad spending is nearly $65 million, per AdImpact and Democrats have a clear advantage. And 51% of those surveyed said they were “very familiar” with Prop 50. Another 39% were “somewhat familiar” and 8% were “not very familiar.” Only 2% were not familiar with it at all. This is one of the most expensive campaigns in California history.
Methodology. This poll of 976 likely voters was conducted from Sept. 29 to Oct. 1. The margin of error is +/- 3.14 percentage points. The firm co/efficient is GOP-aligned. It was not sponsored by any candidate or a committee supporting a candidate.
