Democrats in the Virginia legislature unveiled a redistricting proposal Thursday night after days of internecine sparring over the layout.
The map creates eight reliably Democratic districts, one safe Republican seat and two competitive districts. It’s likely to achieve the desired 10D-1R split this November because the environment strongly favors Democrats. But Democrats will probably still have to spend money to win.
And there’s a long way to go before the new map takes effect. Voters will have to OK a mid-decade gerrymander by the legislature in an April referendum. Republicans have launched a slew of court challenges.
But should all go to their plan, Democrats could net four more House seats, a huge for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and the party. The current Virginia delegation is 6D-5R.
The map. The most competitive district is anchored in Virginia Beach. Former Vice President Kamala Harris won it by one point in 2024. Former Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Va.) plans to run again in a rematch against Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Va.).
The other purple seat is the 6th District, which snakes through Central Virginia’s college towns from Harrisonburg to Charlottesville and out west. Former Rep. Tom Perriello (D-Va.), author Beth Macy and state Del. Sam Rasoul could run in the Democratic primary. Harris won this seat by three points.
The new 7th District leans blue and stretches from Fairfax out, forming a Y shape around Charlottesville. Look for Virginia state Del. Dan Helmer to run here. Rep. Eugene Vindman’s (D-Va.) seat was renumbered to the 1st District.
The new 5th District is a Harris+8 seat stretching from the Richmond suburbs westward. Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor is likely to run here.
The lone GOP seat spans the western portion of the state.
Rep. James Walkinshaw’s (D-Va.) district now runs from Fairfax to the Shenandoah Valley. Rep. Don Beyer’s (D-Va.) seat stretches from Alexandria down to Yorktown. Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Va.) was drawn into this district, which Harris won by 18 points.
The numbers. It’s worth noting that Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger won 10 of the state’s 11 seats last November with 55% or more. Spanberger had an unusually strong win and a flawed opponent, but her margins in the revised districts are a good sign this map will perform well for Democrats.
But privately, some Democrats questioned why two of the districts remain so competitive by 2024 presidential numbers. The 2nd and 6th districts could easily draw millions of dollars in outside spending by GOP-aligned groups. And while Democrats are favored in both, victory is not certain.
