Nearly three-quarters of senior Capitol Hill staffers (72%) say Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 election, helped partly by swing voters, according to our latest survey results.
Just 28% of respondents to The Canvass think GOP candidate Donald Trump will win the presidential election. Broken down by party, 54% of Republican staffers said the former president would win.
The latest Canvass results showing Harris in the lead align with the most recent general polling that shows her narrowly leading Trump ahead of the November election.
Swing states: The path to the White House runs through several states that could go either way. However, a majority of Capitol Hill staffers think Harris will win in Wisconsin (85%), Nevada (77%) and Michigan (81%) but are split on who will take Arizona and Georgia.
Nearly two-thirds (61%) of top Hill staffers think Harris will win Pennsylvania while one-third say Trump will take the Keystone State.
Pennsylvania has swung both ways in the last two presidential elections. The state solidified President Joe Biden’s 2020 victory and voted for Trump in 2016.
Respondents were split on who will win in Arizona, with 50% of staffers thinking it will be Harris and 46% saying it will go to Trump.
Georgia is the one swing state that most senior Hill staffers (57%) think Trump would win over Harris.
Momentum: Most (77%) of the respondents say the Democratic Party has more momentum than the GOP as Election Day draws nearer. Interestingly, 55% of Republican senior staffers who responded to the survey agreed.
Harris and VP nominee Tim Walz have energized the Democratic base since Biden stepped down and endorsed Harris’ candidacy in late July.
Nearly all (96%) senior staffers think the Harris-Walz presidential ticket will help Democrats in other races.
The Harris-Walz campaign has given nearly $25 million to support the Democrats down ballot, breaking the record for the largest fund transfer ever.
Republican senior staffers thought quite the opposite about their party’s ticket. Almost half of GOP respondents (46%) think Trump and VP nominee Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) will harm Republicans down the ballot.
The Canvass Capitol Hill was conducted from Sept. 9-27 in partnership with independent public affairs firm, LSG.
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– Samantha Bell
