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House speaker drama will hurt GOP in 2024 elections, Hill staffers say

Most senior Hill staffers (71%) say the weeks-long drama in October over the House speakership will haunt Republicans in the 2024 elections, according to our recent survey, The Canvass Capitol Hill.

That thinking cuts across the board; 78% of Democratic staffers and 64% of Republican respondents think the speaker fiasco will hurt Republicans at the polls next year.

As a reminder, conservative hardliners ousted Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) from the speakership on Oct. 3, leaving the House paralyzed for weeks. It took 22 days and several tiring rounds of voting before the House GOP finally landed on Speaker Mike Johnson.

The embarrassing speaker debate had led some House Republicans to worry the NRCC’s October fundraising numbers would tank. Despite the debacle, the NRCC reported raising $5 million in October while spending $3.8 million.

However, the NRCC is getting severely outpaced by the DCCC. The DCCC raised $8.1 million in October and had $47 million on hand at the end of the month. The NRCC had $37 million in its campaign account at the end of October.

Impeachment: The survey found less than half of Hill staffers (42%) think Johnson’s election increases the chances the GOP will impeach President Joe Biden. Just 45% of Democratic staffers and 40% of Republican respondents think impeachment is more likely under the new speaker.

Still, House Republicans are continuing their efforts to try and oust Biden.

House Majority Whip Tom Emmer said GOP leaders are moving toward a vote to authorize an impeachment inquiry into Biden sometime in the next few weeks. Johnson, a former Judiciary Committee member, was surrounded by the leaders of the impeachment effort on Wednesday as he outlined the next steps of the investigation.

But it’s important to note that House Republicans have yet to unearth any evidence of misconduct by the president.

The Canvass Capitol Hill was conducted Nov. 1-19 in partnership with LSG.

Want to take part in The Canvass? Our survey provides anonymous monthly insights from top Capitol Hill staffers and K Street leaders on key issues facing Washington. Sign up here if you work on K Street. Click here to sign up if you’re a senior congressional staffer.

— Donna Baeck

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Editorial photos provided by Getty Images. Political ads courtesy of AdImpact.