Congress has sat firmly on the sidelines as President Donald Trump wages an increasingly deadly war on Iran. GOP leaders and rank-and-file lawmakers have repeatedly voted against efforts to rein in Trump’s war powers, insisting that this would be a quick and victorious campaign.
But all that may be about to change.
With NATO and other U.S. allies refusing to supply warships to guard the vital Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported Wednesday night that the White House is considering deploying thousands of U.S. troops to the Middle East region. This could include the use of U.S. ground troops on the Iranian shoreline or Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil transfer facility, in order to reopen the waterway.
Such a move would be a dramatic escalation of the American military campaign against Iran, risking more U.S. casualties while adding greatly to the price tag for the operation. It would also be a huge political challenge for Trump and Hill Republicans, who have let the president have a free hand during the widening war. So far, at least 13 service members have died with another 200 wounded, although many of them have returned to duty.
Trump administration officials downplayed the Reuters report, noting that senior Trump administration officials — including Secretary of State Marco Rubio — have repeatedly said they aren’t ruling out the use of ground forces against Iran. The Pentagon has already sent the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, a force of around 2,200 Marines, to the region. The unit is expected to arrive by next week.
Iran’s ability to block the Strait of Hormuz — roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply moves through the passage daily — has triggered a global energy crisis and caused oil prices to soar to $114 per barrel.
Iranian missiles caused “significant damage” at a huge Qatari liquified natural gas facility on Wednesday. That Iranian barrage was in response to an earlier Israeli attack on an Iranian gas site. There were further Iranian attacks on Qatar and Saudi Arabia on Thursday, including a Red Sea facility. Natural gas prices have spiked, especially in Europe.
Trump — aware of the rising panic in global energy markets and what it means for the war — lashed out at the Israelis on Truth Social for the attack on the South Pars gas field:
NO MORE ATTACKS WILL BE MADE BY ISRAEL pertaining to this extremely important and valuable South Pars Field unless Iran unwisely decides to attack a very innocent, in this case, Qatar.
Trump added that the U.S. “will massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field at an amount of strength and power that Iran has never seen or witnessed before” if Iranian forces attack Qatar again. That would be a devastating blow to Iran, yet it would also trigger an economic earthquake far beyond the Middle East.
NATO No. Trump has been publicly furious over the refusal of Britain and other allies to send warships to join in the Iran conflict, even suggesting he may pull the United States out of NATO in response.
But the problem remains for Trump and Pentagon leaders — Iran is still able to fire missiles and drones at Israel and the Gulf States as part of an economic warfare campaign, despite the overwhelming assault from U.S. and Israeli air forces.
However, the use of ground combat forces inside Iran in order to reopen the Strait of Hormuz would be a red line for many lawmakers in both parties. Trump may be forced by necessity to come to Congress to authorize such an expedition. GOP lawmakers privately tell us this would be an “uphill fight,” although they want to see if Trump actually makes the request first.
“Secretary Rubio said ‘No, we’re not planning on boots on the ground,’” Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska.) said. “If that has changed, if that has shifted … whether it’s the Marine Expeditionary Unit or these others that may be coming their way, if they know it, we got a pretty decent sized SCIF. They need to be talking to us about it.”
The internal debate over ground troops comes as the Washington Post reported that the Pentagon has asked the White House to request $200 billion-plus from Congress for the Iran conflict, a figure that would stun everyone on Capitol Hill and may not be politically feasible.
We reported Monday that the White House could ask for $100 billion or more for an Iran funding bill. The Pentagon may be overshooting what it actually needs. But it’s fair to say that the price tag is rising rapidly for what was once expected to be a limited operation.
As we’ve pointed out, there’s virtually no chance Democrats would back any Iran funding request at this time. Republican leaders have considered using a party-line reconciliation package as a vehicle to pass this funding. That would be a very difficult vote for vulnerable Republicans.
Also, DHS vote incoming. On the heels of a shocking Senate confirmation hearing that got tense and personal before ending in a trip to the SCIF, Sen. Markwayne Mullin’s (R-Okla.) nomination to lead the Department of Homeland Security will get a committee vote this morning.
Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who chairs the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, will vote against Mullin. That means Mullin will need one Democrat to break ranks and back the nomination. Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) said earlier this month that he’d support Mullin, though the Pennsylvania Democrat would only say Wednesday that he’s keeping an open mind and “we’ll see.”
If Mullin’s nomination advances as expected, Senate GOP leaders are eyeing floor action early next week.
DHS has been shut down for 33 days now, and there’s no resolution in sight to the standoff over ICE and Trump’s immigration crackdown.
