CHICAGO – All eyes are on the Democrats’ convention this week, where Vice President Kamala Harris’ rapid ascension to the top of the ticket has led to an unprecedented shakeup in the national political climate.
During a highly anticipated speech on Monday night, an emotional President Joe Biden told a crowd of delegates and party faithful that he’d “given my heart and soul to our nation, and I’ve been blessed a million times in return.” More on that below.
But for now, let’s zoom in on the fight for control of the House next year. It’s a bit obvious and overly simplistic to just say that Harris’ soaring fortunes should help down-ballot Democrats. Of course.
Yet despite Harris’ newfound popularity, there are many reasons why Democrats romping to victory is far from a sure thing. Just think back to 2020 and 2022. Predictions by both parties during those cycles were way off.
Let’s temper expectations on another front too. Whichever party nabs power in November will have a modest majority. The number of House seats truly up for grabs is small.
Currently, House Republicans hold a slim four-seat majority. We’ve seen how that has gone. Speaker Mike Johnson’s dysfunctional House Republican Conference can barely keep the lights on.
Let’s talk about why the presidential race may have limited impact on the House.
1) The House map isn’t the same as the presidential map.
The battleground for the House lies largely outside of the states that will determine the next occupant of the White House. Undoubtedly, the increase in enthusiasm associated with Harris could boost Democrats in tight races.
But consider this: Of the 22 most competitive seats rated as “toss-ups” by the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, only seven are in presidential swing states. So there’ll be big fights for competitive House seats in states where the presidential campaigns won’t spend a dime.
“Our majority lives and dies in blue states,” said Dan Conston, president of the Congressional Leadership Fund, the House GOP-leadership affiliated super PAC. “The environment is just a couple ticks better for Republicans in those swing districts than it is elsewhere. That has been a consistent phenomena for six years, and it very much exists the same way today.”
Deep-blue states like New York and California have a plethora of competitive seats. Plus, there will be close House races in Ohio, Maine, Colorado, Washington State and Alaska — none of which will benefit in a major way from presidential race spending. Harris and former President Donald Trump won’t spend much time there between now and Election Day.
“The presidential race is not going to be fought in those states,” DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene said in Chicago Monday. “This is also a place where House infrastructure is important and House investments are important because these are states where the competitive races are House races.”
2) The money angle.
Let’s be blunt here. Democrats are absolutely walloping Republicans in the fundraising game. The DCCC has $17 million more in the bank than the NRCC as of June 30. Vulnerable Democrats are far ahead of their GOP challengers.
DelBene dug deeper during a roundtable with reporters Monday. A stunning 97% of Frontliners outraised their Republican opponents last quarter, she said. And vulnerable Democratic incumbents have an average of five times as much cash in the bank.
It’s a massive advantage for candidates to have big piles of cash because they can buy TV time far cheaper than campaign committees.
Just on Monday, the DCCC Independent Expenditure program announced another $27 million in ad reservations, which comes on top of the $28 million announced in June. Of the new ad reservations, $8 million is going to New York and another $5 million to California.
But when you take into account the super PACs, the picture gets fuzzier. As of July 15, CLF had $110 million on hand. House Majority PAC, the Democratic super PAC, had $88 million.
In short, while Democratic candidates and the DCCC have far more money than their GOP opponents, the Republican super PAC is outpacing the Democrats’ equivalent group.
3) It’s only August.
Things look good for Democrats now. There’s no disputing that. Yet think back to just one month ago.
Trump had just survived an assassination attempt. The images of the bloodied former president pumping his fist in the air led many political prognosticators to believe there was no way he would lose in November. Republicans gathered for the RNC in Milwaukee confident of gains in the House and Senate.
Then Biden dropped out following his disastrous debate performance and everything changed. It’s a lesson that the political climate could — and likely will — shift again between now and Nov. 5.
There will be at least one Harris-Trump debate. There could be an escalation in the ongoing war in the Middle East. Any post-DNC bump for Democrats may fade. No one knows what developments lie in store between now and Election Day.
4) Republicans are more trusted on key issues.
Recent polling has shown the GOP with an edge when voters are asked what party they trust to handle the overall economy, immigration and inflation, the top issues this year.
Of course, Democrats retain the edge on abortion rights. Expect that message to be repeated over and over again in competitive House seats.
