Speaker Mike Johnson spent all campaign season vowing that Republicans would grow their numbers in the House. But the House GOP majority could shrink to as little as one seat in January, as tight as it can possibly get and still remain in Republican control.
Two years ago, Republicans won 222 House seats. The most the GOP can win this time around is 221.
The only uncalled House race in the country is in California’s 13th District, where Democrat Adam Gray leads Rep. John Duarte (R-Calif.) by 190 votes. Per California law, county election officials must finalize the final results by Dec. 5. Eight days later, the California secretary of state will certify the results.
There are no automatic recounts in California, so one of the campaigns must request a recount.
Last week, the Associated Press called Iowa’s 1st District for Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa) and California’s 45th District for Democrat Derek Tran. Tran’s win marked another blue flip in Southern California and unseated Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Calif.).
With the California 13th District race still undecided, Republicans control 220 seats and Democrats have won 214. Now comes the tricky part — Republicans are set to lose as many as three members next month as members leave office or head to the incoming Trump administration.
Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) has announced he will retire and won’t serve in the 119th Congress. Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.) will serve as President-elect Donald Trump’s national security adviser. Waltz is expected to resign on Jan. 20, after Trump is sworn in.
Florida GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis has already set special elections on April 1 for both the Gaetz and Waltz seats.
Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) is set to become the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. New York Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul will set a special election date after Stefanik leaves office.
So Republicans will either control 217 or 218 seats in the opening months of 2025, depending on whether Duarte can pull off a late turnaround.
And remember, a tie vote in the House loses. So Republicans will have the tightest possible margin possible for a couple months. Any single member can swing a vote if all the Democrats show up.
