There are 20 days until Election Day.
Waiting on the other side of Nov. 5 are the House and Senate leadership elections, the high-stakes internal political contests that will help determine the parties’ trajectories on Capitol Hill for the next two years.
We wanted to lay out the timeline for these contests and some dynamics you should be aware of.
House Republicans. GOP leadership plans to hold its elections the first week the House comes back into session — Nov. 12. Incoming freshmen members will be in town for orientation Nov. 12-22.
Remember, there are several variables to consider here. It seems possible that it won’t be clear who holds the House majority by Nov. 12. So there could be a question as to whether Republicans are holding elections for the majority or the minority.
If it looks like Republicans will be in the majority, speed benefits Speaker Mike Johnson and the incumbent leadership team. If that’s the case, we don’t anticipate they’ll have any problem staying in power.
But if Republicans slip into the minority, there could be a major shake-up. Will Johnson vie for minority leader? Will someone challenge him, especially House Majority Leader Steve Scalise or Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio)?
Besides Johnson, a bunch of other Republicans need to make quick decisions. Who will run for NRCC chair? Will House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik run for reelection to her leadership post or seek a Cabinet position if former President Donald Trump wins?
House Democrats. House Democratic leaders haven’t decided when their leadership elections will occur. But several sources told us it may be too rushed to hold it parallel to the GOP when the House returns on Nov. 12.
Let’s remember that House Democrats, unlike Republicans, have no leadership drama. No one is seeking to oust Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Minority Whip Katherine Clark or Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar. The trio will move up to speaker, majority leader and majority whip if Democrats take the House.
The real competition will be for vice chair, as we reported on Tuesday. That race is between Reps. Robin Kelly (D-Ill.) and Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.). Other open slots include the Democratic Policy and Communications Committee, leadership’s battleground representative, the representative for members with fewer than five terms and the freshman representative.
It’ll also be interesting to see who Jeffries taps to lead the DCCC.
Senate GOP. This will be the most closely-watched Senate Republican leadership election in nearly 20 years.
There are three declared candidates for the top job — Senate Minority Whip John Thune and Sens. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Rick Scott (R-Fla.). The other competitive race will be for the No. 3 position, Republican Conference chair, with Sens. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) and Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) running.
The GOP election, which is conducted via secret ballot, is expected to take place the week of Nov. 11. Since Tuesday, Nov. 12, is a fly-in day, the election could be on Wednesday the 13th or Thursday the 14th.
But some conservatives have argued during recent closed-door GOP lunches that the election should be delayed so candidates can outline their plans. It comes as Senate Republicans are debating both privately and publicly over potential changes to the leadership structure in a post-Mitch McConnell world.
Hardliners are pushing for a major overhaul that would give individual senators more influence on everything from floor strategy to policy priorities. Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) has been leading on this and recently outlined some ideas that would significantly curb the power of the party’s leader.
McConnell has been pushing back against these efforts during closed-door meetings. And on Tuesday, Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who’s firmly in McConnell’s camp, released his own letter slamming Lee’s proposals as “ill-advised.”
While Lee didn’t explicitly call for delaying the elections, others have done so in an effort to force the candidates to commit to certain concessions before earning their votes. Sound familiar?
Here’s Tillis:
Delaying the leadership elections would require a majority vote in the conference anyway, and there isn’t much support for doing this.
However, if some battleground races aren’t called yet and the full crop of incoming GOP senators has yet to be determined, there would probably be an appetite for a delay.
Senate Democrats. This is perhaps the easiest caucus to project with the least amount of drama. Unless Senate Democrats get wiped out on Election Day, in which case there could be some grumbling, but that will occur across the entire Democratic Party. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer will remain firmly in control.
Leadership elections will likely be in early December, based on past practice. The only open job is retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s (D-Mich.) position as chair of the Policy and Communications Committee.
