PHOENIX — Kari Lake is taking a massive gamble.
The GOP Senate nominee in Arizona is rejecting the notion that she needs to shed her reputation as a MAGA warrior in order to win in a state where disaffected Republicans and right-leaning independents have propelled Democrats to narrow victories in recent statewide elections.
In an interview aboard her campaign bus Monday evening, Lake made it clear that her strategy to win over this crucial bloc is to double down on MAGA — not back away.
“I honestly believe that the America First agenda is the greatest way for people in the middle,” Lake told us, emphasizing crime and the border. “Unfortunately, we have to push back against a very corrupt media that’s trying to paint this movement as extremist. Frankly, I don’t see anything extremist.”
Lake’s campaign centers around the migrant crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border, which has disproportionately impacted Arizona and other border states. Lake’s theory of the case is that disaffected Republicans and GOP-friendly independents will come home to the party as she faces off against Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.).
“Arizona is at the center of the political universe,” Lake added. “We’re taking incoming from a terrible border policy, we’re seeing the cartels run our border, illegals pouring in, human trafficking, child sex trafficking, fentanyl trafficking.”
Lake won her primary last week, but by a closer-than-expected margin, leading Democrats to question whether Republicans will ultimately unify behind her. At the same time, though, Lake won support from a prominent establishment Republican and one-time rival, Karrin Taylor Robson.
The fight for Arizona’s middle: To be sure, the border crisis is a dominant issue in each of the competitive Senate races. Plus, former President Donald Trump is slightly ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in the RealClearPolitics average of recent Arizona polls. So Lake’s instincts here could prove correct.
“Arizona being a border state and Kamala Harris having served as the failed border czar is not going to play very well,” NRSC Chair Steve Daines told us.
But previous elections show that Lake could be making an extremely risky bet in a state with such a unique electorate — including a bellwether voting bloc that has already rejected the MAGA brand.
President Joe Biden won here in 2020, and two years later Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) and Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs won statewide. Hobbs defeated Lake, who’s continuing to challenge those results in court.
All three Democrats owed their victories, at least in part, to support from independents as well as the formidable coalition of Republicans aligned with the late Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). Many would be voting for Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) this year if she’d decided to seek reelection.
Sinema has no plans to endorse a successor. It’s not difficult to see why. Gallego had long criticized Sinema from the left. Lake’s MAGA politics and her history of boosting Trump’s false claims of a stolen election were always unlikely to win over one of the Senate’s most well-known moderates.
Many Arizona voters could ultimately find themselves in the same spot as Sinema, with the race having become so nationalized that they don’t have an obvious candidate to gravitate toward.
Gallego courts Republicans: Some Republicans have already flocked to Gallego, who this week announced a “Republicans for Ruben” initiative that includes former McCain staffers and other longtime Republicans critical of the party’s Trumpian drift.
Gallego is aiming to replicate Democrats’ success with this group of voters in 2020 and 2022. Gallego wasn’t made available for an interview on Monday.
“There are a lot of Republicans in Arizona that don’t feel comfortable with [Lake], and that bodes well for Ruben,” DSCC Chair Gary Peters told us.
Lake dismissed the effort as a smokescreen for Gallego’s progressive voting record and his support for gutting the filibuster.
“He’s like a cross between Mr. Rogers and G.I. Joe — but he’s actually Nancy Pelosi, he’s more radical than the squad,” Lake said.
