The fact that New Jersey is dominating the political conversation weeks after the election is bad news for Democrats. After President-elect Donald Trump improved his showing by 10 points in four years, GOP gains in deep-blue turf are forcing Garden State Democrats to grapple with an erosion of working-class support.
Democrats are blaming inflation and a global anti-incumbency backlash for their struggles. Republicans are newly emboldened by what they see as a radical realignment among traditionally Democratic voters.
By the numbers: Vice President Kamala Harris won New Jersey by just six points (the same margin as in New Mexico), whereas President Joe Biden won by 16 points in 2020. A New Jersey Globe breakdown of the state’s 9th District showed how the plurality-Latino seat swung from backing Biden by 19 points to voting for Trump by one point this cycle.
Democratic explanation: Sen.-elect Andy Kim (D-N.J.) told us there’s a prevailing sense of “frustration” among voters, egged on by high costs and “really shitty public transit challenges.”
Hanging over all of the voter anger, according to Kim, are deep-lying trust issues.
“I’m here in the U.S. Senate in part because of a corruption scandal that has no doubt had impacts on the Democratic Party brand,” Kim said, referring to former Sen. Bob Menendez’s (D-N.J.) conviction on corruption and bribery charges.
Sen. George Helmy (D-N.J.), a former top gubernatorial aide appointed to fill Menendez’s seat, blamed Democratic messaging problems.
“I think the party of the working people, which is the Democratic Party, needs to just do a better job of getting the message to the working people,” Helmy added.
Just take a look at Rep. Josh Gottheimer’s (D-N.J.) omnipresent “lower taxes” messaging in his gubernatorial bid for a sense of which way Democrats think the political winds are shifting.
GOP optimism: Many scoffed when Trump held a May rally in Wildwood, N.J., that attracted tens of thousands of supporters. But Trump’s focus on New Jersey may have paid off by energizing voters in a way Democrats never did in the state.
In a triumphant post-election call with House Republicans, Conference Chair Elise Stefanik declared New Jersey was now “a swing state.”
Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.), a Democrat-turned-Republican, said Republican gains were due to “a lot of hard-working people getting tired of corporate taxes.”
Van Drew singled out increases in GOP support from “people of color, Hispanics, blue-collar workers, union workers” in a shift that could mark “a new time for New Jersey.”
“Nobody on the ground thought we would hold it to five points,” Van Drew said. “Usually in New Jersey in a presidential year, you’ll lose by 15 to 20.”
