SCRANTON, Pa. — For the next week, the eyes of the world are on Pennsylvania. Its voters have an enormous amount of power this year.
In all likelihood, they’ll determine who wins the presidency. And if that weren’t enough, the outcome of the Senate race here could very well be the difference between an underperformance or a big night for Senate Republicans.
No pressure, Dave McCormick!
McCormick, the Republican challenging Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.), has always had a difficult path to victory. Casey is an entrenched, largely non-controversial incumbent with near-universal name ID in the Keystone State. And McCormick, like other battleground GOP challengers, has consistently polled behind former President Donald Trump.
But the race has tightened, and McCormick knows he can’t just rely on Trump to propel him to victory.
“President Trump helps me because he helps turn out the vote, and I’m very much in favor of his policy agenda, for the most part. But I’ve got to run my own campaign,” McCormick told us in an interview after addressing campaign volunteers. “I also have to be able to appeal to voters in the suburbs, in cities. I’ve got to be able to build a coalition that gets me to 50 plus one.”
Call it the anti-Kari Lake strategy. When we interviewed the Arizona GOP Senate candidate in Phoenix in August, Lake made clear that she had no interest in backing away from her MAGA label to attract a broader coalition necessary to win in a presidential battleground.
That’s at least partly why Senate Republicans are much less optimistic about Arizona than the Rust Belt states where their candidates have gained traction down the stretch. McCormick knows he has to hug Trump, but that can’t be everything the former hedge fund executive does.
“You have to appeal to a broader group of people to win in Pennsylvania,” McCormick said. “While I’m obviously a Republican and a conservative, I’m running to represent all of Pennsylvania.”
McCormick is attempting to close the gap in the final days by portraying himself as an “independent guy” and a “problem solver,” drawing in part on his business experience.
Much of that strategy involves appealing to Trump-skeptical Republicans and independents who are open to voting for other GOP candidates on the ballot. An example would be former Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), a business-minded conservative who backs McCormick but won’t vote for Trump.
Donald Trump Jr. headlined a rally for McCormick in the Scranton area on Saturday. Also in attendance? Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.), another anti-Trump Republican.
Casey would be a “sure vote” for Vice President Kamala Harris’ agenda, McCormick argues, hoping this would help him appeal to disaffected Republicans.
“Those radical San Francisco liberal policies don’t fly in Pennsylvania and at a time when Pennsylvania’s becoming more and more red,” McCormick said.
Casey responds: Casey says McCormick’s appeals to voters outside Trump’s base — particularly independents and suburban voters — shouldn’t be taken seriously.
Speaking at a carpenters’ union hall in Philadelphia on Saturday, Casey highlighted McCormick’s opposition to the 2022 bipartisan infrastructure law, which Casey has pointed to as he touts his efforts to bring federal investments and jobs back home. We spoke with Casey afterward.
“My record [is] delivering for the state like never before in terms of a senator being able to bring back the kinds of dollars I’ve brought back… compared to his record as a hedge fund CEO, not investing in Pennsylvania,” Casey told us.
If McCormick is elected, he’d be “part of a MAGA majority that would do pretty much whatever the former president wants him to do,” Casey said, citing the GOP challenger’s opposition to the bipartisan border security deal. Casey said his opponent doesn’t have the “guts” to stand up to Trump.
‘A safe majority’: While Republicans are expected to flip the Senate, a razor-thin majority would be considered a disappointment by many, even if they won’t say it out loud.
Republicans have a highly favorable map this year. West Virginia is virtually guaranteed to flip to the GOP with the retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.), and the party is in a solid position to knock off red-state Sens. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio).
Senate Republicans expanded the map in part by touting candidate recruitment in purple states, an effort intended to shed the party’s penchant for nominating lackluster general election candidates.
So while flipping just one additional seat gets them the majority, they have a unique opportunity to build what McCormick called a “safe” majority that could outlast the 119th Congress.
“I’m not sure if the [Senate] majority will be decided here… but certainly a safe majority,” McCormick said. “Pennsylvania punches above its weight.”
We’ll have more from Pennsylvania in the Midday edition and tomorrow morning.
