CHICAGO — Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer likes to remind everyone that he’s a perpetual optimist. During a convention week, it’s easy for that to verge into pure spin.
Despite facing their worst electoral map in years, Schumer and other top Democrats say their chances of holding the Senate are far better than they appear.
A mix of newfound enthusiasm for the top of the ticket thanks to Vice President Kamala Harris, plus what Democrats see as a repeat of Republicans’ “candidate quality” problem, has Schumer putting his usual optimism into overdrive.
“Everyone knows unity is the most important thing for us, and to avoid internecine fights — and there have been very few,” Schumer said during a roundtable with reporters here on Tuesday. “I stand by what I’ve been saying — and that is, we will keep the Senate, we may pick up a seat or two.”
Our eyes rolled, too. Yet even if Schumer’s analysis is correct, it still may not be enough to overcome a horrendous map and GOP advantages on key policy issues.
West Virginia is already a flip for Republicans thanks to Sen. Joe Manchin’s retirement. Democrats would need to run the table in the remaining contests and win the White House just to have a 50-50 majority. Anything more requires them picking up seats in states like Florida or Texas. More on that in a bit.
Democrats would also need enough ticket-splitters in Ohio and Montana to keep those in their column, and that’s an increasingly rare phenomenon.
The world according to Schumer: The New York Democrat sees his candidates and incumbents benefitting from what President Joe Biden could never seem to capitalize on — the legislative accomplishments of the first two years of his presidency.
“People say, ‘Well, it didn’t work for Joe Biden.’ And it’s true. If you say I’m going to build 500 bridges in America, they shrug their shoulders,” Schumer said. “[But] it is really helping the popularity of our senators. Rightly or wrongly, the issue of [Biden’s] age got in the way before anything else could happen.”
Schumer has been pleading with his vulnerable incumbents to highlight the Senate’s work to pass bipartisan legislation on infrastructure, semiconductor chip manufacturing and more, which has already yielded new projects in battleground states.
As we wrote in Nevada earlier this month, Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) is following Schumer’s guidance on this and leaning hard into it. So is Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.). Casey, however, is attending the convention this week while Rosen isn’t.
Where it gets tougher for Democrats is in Montana and Ohio, where former President Donald Trump is likely to win overwhelmingly. Sens. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) aren’t attending this week’s convention for obvious reasons. Both are framing themselves as centrists who care more about what benefits their state than the national party.
Tester’s team tells us he’ll be raising money with Pearl Jam today in Missoula ahead of the band’s concert tomorrow at the University of Montana. Pearl Jam’s bassist Jeff Ament grew up with Tester in Big Sandy.
Candidate quality: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell told us recently that he doesn’t see a “candidate quality” problem with the GOP’s slate of 2024 candidates compared to 2022. Wishful thinking, says Schumer.
Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania, Eric Hovde in Wisconsin and Sam Brown in Nevada have all faced carpet-bagging allegations. Schumer referenced Mehmet Oz, the 2022 GOP candidate in Pennsylvania who had a residence in New Jersey, suggesting Republicans hadn’t learned their lesson.
Most of this year’s GOP candidates are also hugging Trump tightly and rejecting calls to appeal to Trump-skeptical voters, like Kari Lake in Arizona. At the same time, Trump is often outperforming them.
Abortion: At least four states with competitive Senate races will have abortion rights on the ballot — Nevada, Arizona, Montana and Florida. Democrats believe this will help their candidates in those states by boosting turnout on an issue that the party has been able to successfully leverage for political benefit.
Texas, Florida and the money game: Yes, we know Texas and Florida are a pipe dream for Democrats. But Schumer made some interesting comments about these two races. First, Schumer said he thinks Democrats will be competitive in both even if the DSCC decides not to spend money there. Schumer cited the super PAC aligned with his political operation, the Senate Majority PAC, as the reason.
“I can’t control what they do but we out-raise the Republicans in our super PAC all the time. I work hard at it,” Schumer said.
Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas), who’s challenging Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), is raising gobs of cash from small-dollar donors “because people really don’t like Ted Cruz around the country,” Schumer said.
Schumer was less bullish on Florida, citing the fact that Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) is independently wealthy and can cut checks for his campaign.
“It’s going to be a lot closer than people think, but on that one, Scott’s got a lot of money,” Schumer said. “Some of these billionaires aren’t spending their money, but he is.”
