FORT WAYNE, Ind. — The polls have shifted every which way in the Senate battleground states this cycle, but one thing has remained constant — former President Donald Trump consistently outperforms the Senate GOP challengers in their own states.
It means there will be thousands of voters across several states who choose Trump at the top of the ticket but vote for a Democrat for the Senate. Democrats’ only hope of retaining their Senate majority — if they don’t pick up seats elsewhere — is to maximize their share of these voters in states where Trump is popular.
It also means Republicans will have to rely on Trump more than ever to lift them to victory. This is especially the case in Midwestern states, where GOP wins are essential if Senate Republicans want to have a workable majority in 2025.
“[Trump] appeals to working-class voters who have traditionally voted Democrat who have now come our way,” Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.), who’s on a glide path to winning his Senate race in this deep-red state, told us at a fundraiser here.
“Those are the voters that Bernie Moreno needs to appeal to, that Mike Rogers needs to appeal to, Eric Hovde and Dave McCormick. Take a page from the Trump playbook,” Banks added, referring to the GOP candidates in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, respectively.
In states like Montana, it may be impossible for Democrats to win over enough ticket-splitters to close the gap. It’ll be slightly easier, but still very difficult, to do so in Ohio.
Yet in states that are also presidential battlegrounds, such as those in the Rust Belt, a narrow Trump victory could also mean a narrow loss for the Senate Republican candidate. That could be the difference between a 51-49 GOP majority and a 53- or 54-seat majority.
The Trump factor: NRSC Chair Steve Daines worked hard to recruit competitive candidates. This has been a problem for Republicans in recent cycles, with Trump-superfan candidates making it through primaries and then losing handily in the general election.
Daines’ strategy also relied on close coordination with Trump and his political operation. As a result, the NRSC-preferred candidates won the coveted Trump endorsement.
At first, many of the candidates had low name ID, so it made sense that Trump would poll ahead of them — and behind their Democratic opponent, especially an incumbent. But with just a few weeks left in the 2024 campaign, that dynamic hasn’t changed much.
“I point this out every day — every candidate I just mentioned, Trump outperforms us by five to 10 points,” Banks said. “He’s got the secret sauce.”
In Arizona, for example, even Senate GOP candidate Kari Lake — a Trump loyalist — lags the former president by double digits in some polls. It’s part of the reason why Senate Republicans want to focus during the final stretch on the Rust Belt states, all of which have tightened.
While Trump still polls ahead of the GOP candidates there in most surveys, the gap is closing. Banks said the fact that it’s a presidential year will turn out Trump voters who may not have participated in recent midterms.