WARREN, Ohio — How do you win reelection as a Democrat in a state that Donald Trump will carry handily?
By running against everyone and everything.
That’s Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D-Ohio) theory of the case, at least, as he tries to beat back the political winds in Ohio to win a fourth term while also salvaging what’s left of Democrats’ hopes to retain their Senate majority.
“Politicians of both parties unfortunately have sold our state out over and over,” Brown said to a crowd assembled at a United Auto Workers union hall here, just miles from the shuttered Lordstown, Ohio, GM plant. “You know all too well what happens when politicians and corporations sell us out. I will never ever give up on our workers.”
Brown used the “both parties” line at least a half-dozen times during a two-stop swing through Trump-friendly counties in eastern Ohio on Friday. Brown is seeking to insulate himself from GOP attacks on a number of issues that dominate the most expensive Senate race in the country.
Brown’s strategy of castigating both parties for national problems that have disproportionately impacted Ohio — from the decimation of the state’s manufacturing base to the influx of fentanyl from the southern border — is giving Democrats hope that he can hang on.
It’s an attempt to appeal to ticket-splitters who back Trump but are willing to vote for Brown. It’s also why Brown treads very carefully when asked about the presidential race. You won’t hear him mention Vice President Kamala Harris much, either.
Democrats need a Brown victory in order to have any chance of holding onto their majority. Even if he wins, control of the chamber is still a reach. The question is whether Brown can defy the ticket-splitting odds in ways that Democratic Sen. Jon Tester might not be able to in even-redder Montana.
On the ground: On the stump and the airwaves, Brown seems to be following Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s advice — distinguishing himself from the national party while emphasizing the implementation of the Senate’s recent bipartisan achievements. That’s in addition to his “both-parties-stink” approach.
Brown’s UAW speech focused on China’s exploitation of U.S. trade policies and its impact on manufacturing jobs. He name-checked the last four presidents, including Joe Biden, for failing to do enough to protect those jobs through trade enforcement. Brown later told us he thinks Trump’s tariff proposal is too heavy-handed.
In Steubenville, Brown talked up the FEND Off Fentanyl Act, which was signed into law earlier this year. Brown led the effort and noted it was overwhelmingly bipartisan. The only time Brown mentioned Trump was when he pointed out that the former president signed a fentanyl bill of his into law.
Focusing on fentanyl also allows Brown to blunt some of the GOP attacks over the crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border.
“We’ve got to close the border better than we have. Presidents of both parties have failed at the border,” Brown told us. “I think [voters] are encouraged by our efforts on fentanyl. The thing many people feel the most is the fentanyl in their communities.”
Brown is betting that these anti-establishment messages resonate with voters who’ve seen first-hand how unfavorable trade policies and fentanyl have ravaged the state.
But with ticket-splitting becoming less common and the Buckeye State getting tougher for Democrats statewide, Republicans are pouring unprecedented sums of money into Ohio to knock off Brown and flip the Senate red.
The GOP playbook: Brown has been polling ahead of his GOP opponent Bernie Moreno, though the race is tightening.
Moreno argues that Brown’s election-year rhetoric belies his record as a reliable Democratic vote in the Senate, which the Republican challenger says contributed to the border crisis and inflation.
Those issues are at the forefront of every Senate GOP campaign this cycle, showing how Republicans are trying to nationalize these races by blaming Democratic incumbents for illegal immigration and rising prices.
Moreno is also taking aim at Brown’s efforts to cast blame elsewhere for Ohio’s problems over the past few decades, noting Brown has been in office the entire time.
Here’s what Moreno told reporters after casting his ballot on the first day of early voting last week:
While Brown strategically avoids the presidential race in part to maximize his share of ticket-splitters, it’s no secret where he stands on Trump.
Republicans, though, are having a difficult time discouraging ticket-splitting. In every Senate battleground, Trump is polling well ahead of GOP candidates. In close races, even the smallest of gaps can make a big difference.