Senate Majority Leader John Thune, Speaker Mike Johnson, tax committee chairs and two top Trump administration officials are set to meet today as Republicans look to sync up on a budget blueprint that has long eluded them — and pass it by Easter.
After House GOP leaders and President Donald Trump showed they could convince conservative hardliners to vote for pretty much anything, now it’s Thune’s chance to make the case that it’s his chamber, not Johnson’s, that needs to be prioritized because that’s where the big challenges are.
This is the first time Senate Republicans will be forced to weigh in on the most significant — and politically difficult — elements of Trump’s legislative agenda. This includes hundreds of billions of dollars in potential cuts to Medicaid and social safety net programs to pay for tax cuts, which will be a defining issue for 2026.
Thune, meanwhile, has drawn a red line around making the 2017 Trump tax cuts permanent. Trump wants this as well. But it might become a harder sell for House GOP leaders if Thune needs to secure a range of other changes in a compromise budget resolution.
Keep in mind: Despite the happy talk from Johnson about getting this done in the coming weeks and months, House and Senate Republicans are still not unified on the big questions in reconciliation.
With that in mind, we wanted to run through the GOP senators you should be paying attention to — and Thune already is. “At some point, the House is going to need us,” Thune quipped Monday.
Medicaid: Several Senate Republicans have said they won’t support deep cuts to Medicaid, yet the House GOP budget resolution would likely require slashing Medicaid in order to achieve the $1.5 trillion in spending cuts outlined in that chamber’s resolution.
“I have concerns. We’ve got a lot, a lot, a lot of folks in West Virginia that really depend on Medicaid,” said Sen. Jim Justice (R-W.Va.), whose state has among the highest percentage of residents who are Medicaid recipients in the country. Justice said he trusts Trump won’t back cuts that would hurt kids or seniors, but the former governor warned he isn’t “going to just rubber-stamp anything.”
Justice’s fellow West Virginian, GOP Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, is also in that group, as are Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine), Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Josh Hawley (R-Mo.).
Even Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), a loyal Trump ally, said during a Fox Business interview on Monday that the Medicaid cuts in the House bill could “decimate” his state, adding that Republicans need to “find a way around it.”
During the vote-a-rama on the Senate’s “skinny” budget resolution, Collins and Hawley backed a Democratic amendment barring tax cuts for wealthy Americans if Medicaid reductions are included.
“I’m not gonna vote for something that cuts those folks’ benefits, period,” Hawley told us. “That’s a red line for me, and I think it is for the president. And that’s good.”
Fiscal hawks: Republicans also need to be conscious of senators who want to cut more and remove the debt-limit increase — a Trump priority — from the compromise resolution. The House’s budget plan includes a $4 trillion increase in the nation’s borrowing limit.
Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) reiterated Monday he’d vote against reconciliation if it includes a debt-limit hike.
Then there’s Sen. Ron Johnson, (R-Wis.) who believes the $1.5 trillion in spending cuts outlined by House Republicans is “totally inadequate.” Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) agrees.
“I’m not gonna support any budget resolution that doesn’t return us to some reasonable pre-pandemic [spending] base,” Johnson said in an interview.
Defense hawks: The House GOP budget resolution prescribes a $100 billion defense spending boost. The Senate’s number is $150 billion. Several defense hawks, including Armed Services Committee Chair Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), believe $150 billion should be the floor, not the ceiling for new defense funding.
Wicker was among the Senate Republicans who backed the recent government funding bill only after getting commitments that the Pentagon shortfall would be addressed through reconciliation. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth discussed this with GOP senators at lunch two weeks ago.
But when we asked Wicker if Hegseth is on board, he responded: “I sure hope so.”
“We need to exceed $150 [billion] because of the disappointing number in the continuing resolution,” Wicker said. “I’m hopeful and confident that once we make the case, we can be successful.”
Dem strategy news: Senate Democrats hope to use the reconciliation fight to find some much-needed unity after the CR debacle.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer will convene a panel of reconciliation experts for Wednesday’s Democratic lunch, including Mike Evans, a former Finance Committee staffer who worked on the Inflation Reduction Act; ex-OMB staffer and longtime Senate aide Michael Linden; and former CMS administrator Chiquita Brooks-LaSure.
The goal is to highlight and exploit GOP divisions, particularly on Medicaid cuts.
In the House: House Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) is hosting Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio for a meeting with House Republicans on Capitol Hill this morning. Dalio is set to talk with GOP lawmakers about the federal debt and reconciliation plans.
House Ways and Means Committee Republicans will hold another closed-door session this week to make decisions on tax plans, per three sources. That huddle is set for Thursday before fly-out votes.
Paging Trump? Sens. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.) and Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) are introducing a bill to eliminate the federal tax on military retirement benefits. The “Tax Cuts for Veterans Act” is modeled after a similar initiative Ricketts spearheaded as governor.
Ricketts is also introducing a bill to phase out federal taxes on Social Security benefits. The twin efforts align with Trump’s campaign promises to slash taxes in several different areas.
The Michael Waltz-Atlantic flap. The Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg’s story about the Trump administration chatting about war plans on Signal is the most stunning – and perhaps idiotic – breach of security protocol in Washington in recent memory. Most concerning for National Security Adviser Michael Waltz, who invited Goldberg to the chat, is that Republicans are already abandoning him. Most importantly, Wicker said his panel will investigate.
