The Senate is the only show in town as the House is in recess. And senators have got a lot on their plate.
The chamber comes into session on Tuesday evening. Senators will take a procedural vote on Kash Patel’s nomination as FBI director that will allow Senate Majority Leader John Thune to file cloture on the highly controversial pick. After that vote, the Senate will move to confirm Howard Lutnick as commerce secretary.
What’s next is the big question, especially what will happen to the Senate GOP’s budget resolution. As we reported Sunday, Senate Republican leaders are considering bringing their “skinny” resolution — championed by Thune and Senate Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) — to the floor this week. No final decision has been made by GOP leaders yet, but it’s likely to happen.
If the resolution were to be brought up as expected, it would be a major statement from Senate Republicans that they’re moving ahead with their two-bill process versus the House GOP’s one-bill approach. The House Budget Committee voted its own budget resolution out of committee late Thursday night following a marathon markup.
Now we’ve said it before and we’ll say it again here: The one-bill vs. two-bill debate feels very insider-y, very Capitol Hill-centric. But it’s truly important when it comes to how much of President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda gets enacted and when.
Under Graham’s approach, Senate committees will quickly come up with $300 billion-plus in new defense and border security spending, including funding to complete the border wall between the United States and Mexico. Senate Republicans will also include energy policy changes. This approach would allow for quick legislative wins for Trump and Hill Republicans.
But it doesn’t address extending the 2017 Trump tax cuts — the president’s big goal – which would come in the second bill. That’s the main reason that Speaker Mike Johnson and House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) are pushing for the one-bill approach. House GOP leaders also aren’t sure they can pass two reconciliation bills given their razor-thin margin of control. Smith, by the way, was with Trump on Air Force One on Sunday going to Daytona Beach, Fla.
Remember — the Senate can’t actually consider more money for the Pentagon or the border until there’s a deal with the House. This resolution only directs the committees to do so. That’s an important dynamic if you’re watching a vote-a-rama on the Senate floor later this week.
More Senate business: The Senate agenda this week also includes confirming former Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-Ga.) as small business administrator. Loeffler and Patel’s nominations both only require two hours of post-cloture time.
And former Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.), Trump’s pick for labor secretary, has her confirmation hearing on Wednesday before the Senate HELP Committee. Several Democrats have praised Chavez-DeRemer, a former mayor and one-term House member, over her union-friendly stances, but it’s unclear whether that will translate into votes for her confirmation. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) has said he’ll vote “no.” Other conservative Republicans have also raised concerns.
Ukraine: The speed with which negotiations to end the war in Ukraine are progressing is stunning. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and national security adviser Mike Waltz are heading to Saudi Arabia this week for meetings with Russian officials as they look to make good on Trump’s promise for a peace deal.
But there are signs of uneasiness about the new U.S. approach, including from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. (We’d recommend carefully watching and reading NBC’s Kristen Welker’s interview with Zelensky on “Meet the Press.”) Many of these concerns were expressed over the weekend at the Munich Security Conference. Several senators attended the annual gathering, where Ukraine’s rare earth minerals were a major focus.
This is very clearly a way for the Ukraine backers in Trump’s orbit to try to convince the president that Ukraine is worth defending. By giving the United States a financial stake in Ukraine’s critical minerals, the thinking goes, the cost of abandoning Kyiv will be that much higher.
Here’s how Graham described it during a panel discussion in Munich over the weekend with Zelensky sitting right next to him:
“Let’s do the minerals agreement so we’ll have American business interests. Putin doesn’t understand what’s going on — if we sign this minerals agreement, Putin is screwed. Because Trump will defend the deal.”
There are major fears among Democrats and NATO allies that the U.S.-led negotiations will mirror Trump’s deferential posture toward Russia and will leave Ukraine and the rest of Europe on the sidelines.
To that end, European leaders are holding an emergency meeting in Paris today focused on Ukraine. Ahead of the meeting, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he’d deploy British troops in Ukraine in order to enforce any peace deal negotiated by the United States. This is yet another sign of European leaders’ skeptical outlook of the Trump-led talks.
