Let’s talk about the politics of a potential government shutdown and what’s happening in the negotiations to avert one with the March 14 funding deadline looming. That’s just 15 days away. It’s been a bit obscured by the budget resolution fight.
After weeks of talks, the two sides remain deadlocked over Democratic demands that GOP leaders guarantee President Donald Trump will spend funds as Congress mandates. Meaning in their view, follow the law. House and Senate Republicans refuse to go along with this, adding that Trump will never sign a bill that includes such language.
So to avoid a shutdown, the debate inside leadership circles in both chambers has shifted to a year-long CR through Sept. 30. We’ll note, these kinds of measures are difficult to draft and pass. The Pentagon, in particular, would be strongly opposed to a long-term CR, seeing it as a setback in funding complex, multi-year projects and programs.
On CNN last night, Speaker Mike Johnson told Kaitlan Collins that he wants anomalies – special provisions in a CR — to account for DOGE spending cuts. Why would Democrats agree to this? They probably wouldn’t.
The challenge for House Republican leaders will be to get a CR on the floor. They will need to pass a rule – the procedural motion – with only GOP votes. If they’re able to do that, there’s a chance they can win some Democratic votes for the underlying bill.
Republican leaders also privately want Trump and top White House officials to tell them which anomalies they need in any long-term CR package. That hasn’t happened yet, leaving Republicans unsure of the White House’s must-haves.
“It looks as though it’s becoming inevitable at this point,” Johnson said of a long-term CR following a White House meeting with Trump and Senate Majority Leader John Thune on Wednesday. Johnson suggested Democrats’ demands “may be unconstitutional.”
“We have never dictated to the executive, so far as I know in the history of the United States, whom they can hire and how many people they can hire,” Johnson added.
But Rep. Rosa DeLauro (Conn.), the ranking Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, pushed back hard at Johnson.
“I don’t know who the speaker talks to. He may be talking to himself in his office,” DeLauro said of a long-term CR. “Nowhere has that come up anyplace. The speaker ought to really check with the chairman of the committee.”
When asked whether the bipartisan, bicameral funding talks are yielding any progress, DeLauro insisted they were.
“We are getting closer. That’s what you need to know,” DeLauro said.
But there’s also a lot of discussion in Democratic ranks over whether they should oppose any CR package, forcing Republicans to pass the measure themselves or face a shutdown.
Both Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries have been deliberately vague here. Although, if you talk to Democratic leadership aides, they all believe a shutdown is terrible politics for their side. Democrats have blistered Republicans over shutdowns for decades. To have a hand in one now — even indirectly — would open Democrats up to heavy criticism.
Some Democrats are even questioning whether it’s worth using the funding deadline to push back on mega-billionaire Elon Musk and DOGE.
“What makes us think if we put more language in there, he’s gonna pay any attention to that? He’s on a lawless rampage, and there’s nothing stopping him,” Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.) told us. “The big question will be if he faces a judicial order and disregards it.”
Government-employee unions are also pro-Democratic, meaning their supporters would be hit hard by any significant shutdown.
Yet that hasn’t stopped some rank-and-file Democrats from saying the burden is on Trump and Republicans to avoid a shutdown.
“We don’t want a government shutdown,” said Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.). “Republicans are in the majority and they need to come up with a plan.”
Let’s go back to Trump. His administration will have enormous latitude on how painful a shutdown is for the American public. Large swaths of federal employees are categorized as essential and must come to work despite a shutdown. Trump could use his authority to try to further minimize any disruption. For instance, Trump could order national parks to stay open during a shutdown, as he did during the 2018-2019 partial shutdown, even though “non-essential” staffers weren’t there.
All of this is playing out against the backdrop of widespread layoffs of federal employees directed by Musk’s DOGE.
A shutdown could actually play into Trump and Musk’s hands by buttressing their argument that much of the federal government can and should be slashed.
At Trump’s direction, OMB and the Office of Personnel Management are moving ahead with plans for a “significant reduction in the number of full-time equivalent (FTE) positions by eliminating positions that are not required,” as well as selling off federal properties. Shifting federal personnel outside Washington is part of this plan.
But Democrats want to drag Musk into this fight — pretty much every fight — because he’s unpopular and easier to bash politically than Trump. Even top GOP appropriators admit that the DOGE controversy isn’t helping them in trying to cut a funding deal.
“It does. I think Democrats have genuine concerns about that in particular,” House Appropriations Committee Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) said in an interview.
The bottom line: A government shutdown isn’t inevitable at this point. There’ll be a lot of back-and-forth leading up to the deadline. But this is exactly the kind of scenario where both sides could blunder into a shutdown, with federal workers feeling the brunt of the pain. Again.
