Just consider how big of a week this is for Congress. Or more specifically, House Republicans.
– Speaker Mike Johnson and the House GOP leadership are planning on putting their multi-trillion dollar budget resolution on the floor on Tuesday. That leaves less than one day in session for Johnson, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer to get their rank-and-file members in line before the high-stakes vote.
If this vote goes forward – and we’re not entirely confident it’ll take place on Tuesday – it’ll be after 6 p.m., sources tell us. As always, the timing of any vote could easily shift. The other big issue here is attendance. Leadership on both sides is working to make sure everyone shows up.
– It’s getting into crunch time for funding the government. There are just 18 days until federal agencies – already under extraordinary pressure thanks to the DOGE initiative – run out of money. GOP and Democratic appropriators don’t have a topline spending deal yet. As we’ve told you repeatedly, Democrats are insisting on restrictions on President Donald Trump’s authority to spend funds as Congress mandates. Republicans say they’re not interested in limiting what Trump can do.
– House Republicans are coming back into town after some lawmakers heard an earful about Elon Musk’s DOGE effort. This was, in part, drummed up by Democratic allies looking to pressure House Republicans on Musk’s slash-and-burn efforts. More on DOGE below.
The budget resolution. Just before the House left for the weeklong Presidents’ Day recess, the House Budget Committee advanced a spending blueprint that would, in theory, allow passage of Trump’s legislative agenda to get through Congress in one massive reconciliation package.
Johnson and House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) spent a lot of political capital convincing Trump to side with the House over the Senate, which is aiming for two reconciliation bills. The theory here being that if Trump wanted permanent extension of the 2017 tax cuts, he’d need to have it passed in one package.
Trump endorsed the House GOP plan, which doesn’t allow the budgetary room to permanently extend the 2017 tax cuts plus enact the president’s other priorities, including eliminating taxes on tips, Social Security and overtime and the SALT cap. Permanent extension of the 2017 cuts has a $4.7 trillion price tag. This resolution, at most, has $4 trillion in space for tax cuts.
Let’s talk about timing. Scheduling a Tuesday vote is, of course, a risk. Before the announcement, we assumed that House GOP leaders would want to take all week to whip members before bringing the resolution up for a vote.
The GOP leadership is trying to create some urgency for lawmakers to get on board quickly. This would give the House the upper hand in negotiations with Senate Republicans. A vote for the House GOP resolution is a vote to proceed with the president’s “full agenda,” they argue.
Remember: Johnson can lose just one vote on the floor if all members are present. And plenty of House Republicans are scared about what it means to vote for $880 billion in cuts to programs under the House Energy and Commerce Committee’s purview, cuts that will almost certainly include Medicaid.
Here’s one no: Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.) said on X Sunday night that she’s “a no on the current version” of the budget resolution.
Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.) has said she’s a “lean no.” Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas), the chair of the Hispanic Conference who represents a large district on the U.S.-Mexico border, sent Johnson a letter raising concerns about cuts to Medicaid, SNAP and Pell Grants. That letter was co-signed by Malliotakis, Reps. Monica De La Cruz (R-Texas), David Valadao (R-Calif.), Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.) and Rob Bresnahan (R-Pa.). Gonzales and members of the GOP Hispanic Conference will meet with Johnson this evening.
Then there are swing district members like Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), who also told us he’s concerned about Medicaid cuts.
Of course, the resolution doesn’t actually stipulate which cuts Republicans have to make. But Democrats are going to say Republicans are slashing Medicaid, food stamps and other social safety net programs.
Government funding. Today is Feb. 24. On March 14, the federal government will run out of money. There’s no top-line funding deal. The two sides claim they’re not at an impasse, but the truth is that they are.
Johnson needs Democrats to get a funding bill through the House. And Senate Majority Leader John Thune needs Democrats to get it through the Senate.
But if you look at the incentive structure right now, it is not in any way in Democrats’ interest to help Republicans on anything. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told CNN’s Jake Tapper on “State of the Union” Sunday that “Republicans have the House, the Senate and the presidency. It is their responsibility to govern.”
Democrats want new restrictions on how Trump and his administration spend government money. Republicans aren’t going anywhere near this.
But some Republicans think the House can pass a clean CR through the end of the year. We’ll see if they can.
Speaker office news. AJ Sugarman is joining Johnson’s staff as deputy policy director. Sugarman was a policy adviser to Scalise and worked in Trump’s first administration in legislative affairs and OMB. Johnson said he is “excited” Sugarman is joining. He will handle the appropriations and budget portfolio.
