Getting out of the shutdown will be hard. Funding the government for next year isn’t going to get any easier after that.
We’ve yet to see Republican and Democratic leadership meet to discuss topline FY2026 spending numbers. That’ll need to happen to get the vast majority of appropriations bills done.
And before that occurs, Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Speaker Mike Johnson have to get on the same page over what funding levels they think will be palatable to both House and Senate Republicans.
Remember, House Republicans advanced spending bills largely in line with the Trump administration’s budget request, while the Senate has produced bipartisan bills above or around FY2025 funding levels.
In an interview Thursday, Thune acknowledged the spending levels will have to be higher than the House’s baseline. But the South Dakota Republican noted that’s “always been the case” because of the 60-vote requirement in the Senate.
Thune predicted the first three-bill minibus — MilCon-Va, Legislative Branch and Agriculture — will clear both chambers overwhelmingly. Thune said the hang-up that still needs to be resolved is how much to spend on lawmaker security in the wake of conservative activist Charlie Kirk’s assassination and other deadly incidents.
“I think there’s a path forward there,” Thune said. “I mean, I don’t know that there are some of those approps bills you’d ever get passed in the House. But I think there are a good number that you could.”
Worlds apart. There are major gaps to bridge between the chambers’ respective funding levels. The House and Senate defense spending bills are nearly $20 billion apart. The gulf is roughly $12 billion on Labor-HHS.
Appropriators can’t even begin to negotiate those two bills, which make up the vast majority of discretionary federal spending, before they get toplines from party leaders. The White House has to sign off too.
Democrats called on Republican leadership to come to the table to move forward with spending bills. Top Senate Appropriations Committee Democrat Patty Murray (Wash.) said GOP leaders have refused to talk to Democrats about a deal to fund the government. Murray said Thune and Johnson need to “get serious” about negotiating.
Here’s more from Murray:
“I worry about our ability to actually get full-year spending bills across the line if Republican leadership won’t even sit down for a serious conversation at this early stage in the process.”
View from appropriations. At the committee level, House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) is prepared to lose support from some House Republicans in order to get a broader funding deal.
“Whenever we get 60 senators, I usually lose people on my right wing,” Cole said. “So the Democrats will also be in a position to play a role in all 12 of those bills.”
Cole said House and Senate leadership need to give appropriators guidance on how to move forward with the rest of the bills.
Leadership could give appropriators the authority to figure out toplines, Cole said, adding “but I would prefer to have more fingerprints on the murder weapon, personally, than just us.”
