Inside President-elect Donald Trump’s orbit at Mar-a-Lago, there’s a bit of a parlor game going on. Just who, they wonder, will vote against Speaker Mike Johnson when the House kicks off the 119th Congress on Friday?
This bears repeating: In all likelihood, if just two House Republicans vote for someone other than Johnson on the floor during the speaker roll call, he can’t win. That would lead to chaos inside GOP ranks and a vast rearrangement of the trajectory of the House Republican Conference.
Trump’s argument for Johnson boils down to this: The Louisiana Republican is both a nice guy and the only one who can win the speaker’s gavel. It’s a similar argument former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s allies made in January 2023; the California Republican was the only one who could get 218 votes.
Some Republicans don’t find this argument persuasive, however. After 14 months of Johnson as speaker, they’re ready to give someone else a chance.
Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) will do anything in his power to ensure that Johnson’s path to the speakership is obstructed, if not completely blocked.
This means that Johnson’s future as speaker may come down to Texas GOP Rep. Chip Roy. And it’s difficult to reconcile how Roy can vote for Johnson after his recent screed on the House floor against the speaker, though Roy insists he’s not a “hard no.”
This is a dangerous situation for Johnson due to a plethora of reasons.
First, Trump has a relatively inexperienced legislative affairs staff, which gives the incoming administration limited insight and few levers to pull with sitting members of the House. While Roy and Massie are certainly problems for Johnson, the incoming administration seems to be scrambling to figure out who else is a no.
Roy also prides himself on ideological purity and seems completely impervious to threats from Trump and his allies. Like Massie, Roy endorsed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the Republican presidential primary.
From Roy’s point of view, Johnson failed to deliver on several issues that the Texas Republican advocated for – tight spending restraints, holding firm on the SAVE Act and strict border restrictions. Of course, these were impossible given Democratic control of the Senate. Yet that’s not enough for Roy.
A call from Trump to Roy would probably do little good — and some in Trump’s orbit realize that.
Behind the scenes. Roy has suggested Johnson name him as chair of the Rules Committee, a panel on which he already sits. Roy, though, has been a major problem for both Johnson and McCarthy since he was added to Rules, and tapping him as chair would upset other Republicans. Roy allies see it as a way to provide a check on Johnson.
Unlike McCarthy, sources close to Johnson say he isn’t willing to negotiate on the rules package for the 119th Congress, which the GOP released Wednesday. The new House rules stipulate that nine members of the majority have to band together to oust the speaker. (Here’s the section-by-section analysis of the rules, if you want to dig in.)
Payback. Trump’s inner circle is also promising retribution for those who cross the president-elect and vote against the speaker. Massie, we should note, has already survived a pro-Trump primary challenge.
“The president will take these attention-seeking antics by certain members as a personal slight — one that he won’t soon forgive or forget,” one Trump insider involved in whipping for Johnson told us.
Trump’s interest in electing Johnson seems to be born of a simple calculation: overthrowing the incumbent speaker would begin the 119th Congress — and thus the new presidency — on a chaotic note. Johnson and Trump, who huddled at Mar-a-Lago on New Year’s Day, have been coordinating on legislative strategy for months. If there were a new speaker, Trump would have to start from scratch. This isn’t impossible. But it would be hard.
Roy also isn’t Johnson’s only headache heading into Friday’s vote either, although it may be difficult for other rank-and-file Republicans to oppose him. Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.) said that Johnson has not “been artful” in executing Trump’s agenda on Capitol Hill. Reps. Eric Burlison (R-Mo.), Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) and Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), as well as HFC Chair Andy Harris (R-Md.), also remain undecided.
Yet there is some good news for Johnson. At least two Freedom Caucus members have committed to supporting him after Trump endorsed him. Rep. Josh Brecheen (R-Okla.) expressed his support earlier this week, while Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) told us he would also support Johnson. Gosar was previously leaning against supporting Johnson.
Democrats: With 215 members heading into the new Congress, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and senior Democrats face one of the tightest margins of control in decades. And they expect all their members to be present and voting on Friday.
This includes former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who recently suffered a broken hip after falling during a visit to Normandy. And Reps. David Scott (D-Ga.), Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.) and Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.) — all of whom were recently replaced as ranking committee members heading into the new Congress — are also expected to be there, Democratic sources said.
