At the outset of September, House Republican leaders told us they were going to spend the weeks before the election dividing Democrats and uniting the GOP.
But in forcing a vote on a six-month CR with the SAVE Act — a move that failed badly on the House floor Wednesday night — Speaker Mike Johnson succeeded in spending a week dividing his party and lessening his already minuscule leverage with the Senate.
And now, just 12 days before a potential government shutdown, Johnson and House Republicans are back at square one. Their opening salvo fell flat. And they’re running out of time.
Here’s what Johnson had to say just moments after 14 GOP lawmakers ignored his entreaties and voted against the CR package:
The Louisiana Republican now has a choice to make. Will he cut a deal with Democrats and the White House on a mid-December stopgap funding bill with some anomalies? Or will he try once again to pass a CR on GOP votes alone? Johnson has to act quickly here or he could stumble into a politically disastrous government shutdown five weeks before Election Day.
Across the Capitol. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is expected to begin his own moves on a bipartisan CR. Schumer may file cloture on a legislative vehicle for a bipartisan funding bill as soon as today. That cloture vote would take place on Monday.
What happens after that is uncertain. If the Senate — which is scheduled to come in on Monday for a rare week-long session — goes first on the CR, then it likely wouldn’t finish floor action on the bill until the following weekend absent some time agreement.
But if the Senate does pass a bill, Johnson and House Republicans would then be faced with having to take that CR at the last minute or face a shutdown starting at midnight on Sept. 30. Remember that former President Donald Trump is calling for a shutdown unless Congress accepts the SAVE Act.
Despite Trump’s stance, there’s rampant speculation in House Republican leadership circles that Johnson will acknowledge reality, cut a deal with Democrats and release a clean CR later this week. The House would then vote on it early next week, pass it with a mix of Republican and Democratic votes (maybe even a majority of Democratic votes) and then leave town until after the election. In fact, this is what Johnson’s leadership team wants him to do.
This is really Johnson’s only logical play. The problem for Johnson is that he wasn’t able to unite the small Republican minority around his funding plan. This leaves him with little leverage to make demands in negotiations with Democrats and the Senate. And he doesn’t have much — if any — time to try to pass another all-Republican funding bill.
Furthermore, Johnson has taken a shutdown off the table. Moderate and vulnerable Republicans would never go for it anyway.
“This is his show,” Appropriations Committee Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) told us. “And certainly we’re supporting what he’s trying to accomplish. But, again, I’ll wait to work with my leadership and go from there.”
Timing complications. There may be an effort in the Senate to revive the SAVE Act — which requires proof of U.S. citizenship to register to vote in federal elections — as an amendment vote.
“I never signal in advance what procedural maneuvers I might undertake,” said Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), who has been very supportive publicly of Johnson’s CR package. “That would certainly be one on the table that I’d consider.”
Yet Democrats are confident Lee or other conservative Republicans can’t get 60 votes to overcome a filibuster. In fact, Senate Democrats would be happy to have this vote if it helps vulnerable senators like Jon Tester of Montana. So it’s unclear if this will happen.
And Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) is expected to demand a vote on an amendment to cut spending, as he normally does with CRs. This won’t get 60 votes either.
But the main takeaway here is that this will take some time. And Congress doesn’t have a lot of time. Decisions have to be made — and quickly.
One more thing: We also expect the Senate to try today to voice-vote a House-passed bill to address a looming $3 billion funding shortfall for veterans’ benefits. The House passed the bill by voice vote earlier this week. The Senate is scheduled to leave town for the weekend this afternoon.
