After 12 hours of debate and the defeat of dozens of Democratic amendments, Republicans on the House Budget Committee approved a GOP budget resolution late Thursday night that’s designed to unlock President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda.
The question now is will it be enough?
House Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington’s (R-Texas) budget plan — the result of weeks of grueling internal negotiations — calls for at least $1.5 trillion in spending cuts, as well as $4.5 trillion for tax cuts. It boosts the debt limit by $4 trillion and includes provisions providing $300 billion for increased defense and border security spending.
Plus, Republicans amended the resolution in Thursday’s markup to shrink the scope of tax cuts if the GOP doesn’t come up with at least $2 trillion in spending cuts. That’s more in line with what the House Freedom Caucus and deficit hawks have been seeking.
Getting the budget resolution through committee is a critical win for Arrington and the House GOP leadership, especially Speaker Mike Johnson. It’s one they desperately needed to keep pace with the Senate’s competing reconciliation push. House GOP leaders plan to bring their measure to the floor following the week-long Presidents Day recess.
“This is the start of the process, and we remain laser-focused on ultimately sending a bill to President Trump’s desk which, among other things, secures the border, keeps taxes low for families and job creators, restores American energy dominance, and makes government work better for all Americans,” Johnson, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, Majority Whip Tom Emmer and Republican Conference Chair Lisa McClain said in a statement.
Led by Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.), ranking member on the Budget panel, Democrats bashed the proposal throughout Thursday’s markup as “cruel,” “heartless,” “toxic” and harmful to low-income families in particular by slashing Medicaid, food stamps and other social safety net programs.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries called the GOP proposal “a betrayal of the middle class that will hurt middle-class Americans and hurt everyday Americans, children, seniors and veterans by devastating Medicaid.”
And despite the House Budget Committee’s action, Senate Republicans are still leaning toward bringing their own budget resolution to the floor next week, according to GOP senators and aides. That would put House and Senate Republicans on a collision course in the apparently endless “one bill vs. two bill” debate. While that may seem like a tedious process question from the outside, it could have a major impact on what GOP congressional leaders and Trump can actually turn into law.
Senate Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham’s (R-S.C.) panel approved a “skinny” budget resolution on Wednesday that boosts defense and border security spending by more than $300 billion over four years. It also calls for changes in energy policy and will be fully offset by cuts in mandatory spending. Graham’s resolution requires authorizing committees to submit their reports to his panel by March 7. Those would then be assembled into one package and sent to the floor.
But first, the Senate has to pass the underlying budget resolution, and that’s a week-long procedure. Under Senate rules, there will be up to 50 hours of floor debate on the resolution followed by a vote-a-rama, where Democrats could offer dozens of politically charged amendments. Final passage is just a simple majority vote.
With so much at stake, why can’t House and Senate Republicans get on the same page? We’ll explain:
(1) House GOP leaders have been adamant about putting all of the GOP’s (meaning Trump’s) priorities in a single reconciliation bill out of fear that a second package would be too hard to pass with their razor-thin majority.
Now that it’s through a markup, the House GOP budget resolution seems to be in a good spot for a floor vote.
However, the House is out for 10 days. This gives Democrats plenty of time to go on the offensive over the massive social safety net cuts needed to meet spending-reduction targets in the blueprint and extend the Trump tax cuts. That’s a real opportunity for Democrats.
(2) Some GOP senators have been making the case that they need to swallow whatever the House can pass because the vote margin there is so tight. But that’s not a universal sentiment.
Lurking under the surface of House Republicans’ budget resolution are a whole set of tough policy decisions that could get extremely fraught, such as competing tax priorities and huge Medicaid cuts. Those fights will play out as House Republicans craft their actual reconciliation bill.
The Senate also isn’t seeing definitive proof that the House is in for smooth sailing from here on out. To be fair, it would be hard to prove that with this small of a House majority.
It also may be a long wait for border security and Pentagon funding under the House approach, while Senate Republicans want to move fast on their two-bill plan.
(3) Key Republican tax writers and Senate Majority Leader John Thune put down a marker on Thursday that they’ll oppose a tax package that falls short of making the Trump tax cuts permanent. The Trump administration wants this too. That’s not very feasible under the House’s budget blueprint.
House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) has told colleagues he needs more than $4.5 trillion in room to cover everything GOP lawmakers and Trump want on taxes.
