DORAL, Fla. — NRCC Chair Richard Hudson (R-N.C.) said House Republicans will benefit from the smallest House map in recent memory to hold their razor-thin majority in 2026.
House Republicans have spent all week at their annual retreat predicting they will “defy history” and keep control of the chamber. Hudson tried to back up this claim by arguing that this cycle is different from past wave elections.
“If you look at history, the president’s first midterms usually go the other way, but I think it’s because presidents usually sweep in a bunch of House seats that you shouldn’t have won,” Hudson said. “That didn’t happen this time because of gerrymandering.”
We’ll still note that Democrats are the favorites to win the House, given the current political environment. But a lot could still change between now and Election Day.
The NRCC chair said control of the House will be decided by “probably less than 30 seats, each one can be decided by 1,000 votes or less.”
“Picture 30 knife fights in 30 dark alleys to determine the majority,” Hudson added. Here are some other highlights from our conversation with Hudson.
Retirements. Hudson pushed back on Democratic claims that the 35 House Republicans forgoing reelection will harm the GOP’s election chances.
“We don’t have a retirement problem,” Hudson said. “You look at 2018, Trump’s last midterm, we had 24 Republicans in competitive seats retired. We have four this time around.”
Economic concerns. Despite voters listing the high cost of living as a top concern, Hudson insists voters won’t blame the GOP.
“[Democrats’] job is to try to convince people that we burned down your house, but you should trust us to put out the fire. That’s a much tougher job than ours,” Hudson said. “The economy is getting better.”
Florida redistricting. Hudson wouldn’t get into details on how many seats Republicans could net in the Sunshine State. We’ve heard Florida Republicans may try to redraw between two to five seats in a special session next month. However, that’s very tentative, and two looks more likely than five.
Hudson said, “it makes sense for them to balance their reapportionment” given the rapid population growth Florida has experienced.
Top seats to watch. The North Carolina Republican singled out Rep. Marcy Kaptur’s (D-Ohio) district — which President Donald Trump won by 11 points in 2024 — as a top target of the House GOP this fall.
Hudson also named Texas Democratic Reps. Vicente Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar as leading flip opportunities in South Texas. Hudson said GOP nominees Eric Flores and Tano Tijerina are “great candidates.”
If Michael LiPetri knocks off Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) in New York’s 3rd District, then it will be “a really good night for us,” Hudson added.
