This is what it’s like to get squeezed by everyone.
In the midst of the most important legislative brawl of his career, Speaker Mike Johnson is under withering pressure from all directions over the GOP’s multi-trillion dollar budget resolution. It’s a critical moment in determining whether Republicans – specifically Johnson – can execute on President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda.
Johnson and his top lieutenants are trying to corral a one-seat House Republican majority around a budget resolution with $4.5 trillion for tax cuts and $1.5 trillion-plus in spending cuts to satisfy a president who sided with them over the new Senate GOP majority. Yet rank-and-file House Republicans and top senators are jamming Johnson from every which way as a huge floor vote looms today.
Johnson and top House Republicans met late into Monday night with undecided and wavering rank-and-file members. As he was leaving the Capitol, Johnson said things were “on track” and he was “expecting a vote” Tuesday evening as planned.
“I think we’re looking good,” Johnson told reporters, adding that leadership and concerned members were “having very productive conversations.”
Here’s the current landscape:
– Some conservatives say they’re undecided or opposed to the budget resolution because they want larger spending cuts and a more serious attempt to address the huge deficit and national debt.
– A handful of GOP moderates are withholding their support because they want more details about how Johnson and House Republican committee chairs plan to cut more than $1 trillion in spending without slashing Medicaid, SNAP and Pell Grants.
– Two key GOP senators — Steve Daines of Montana and Senate Finance Committee Chair Mike Crapo of Idaho — met with Trump Monday afternoon to push him on the need to make the 2017 tax cuts permanent. This isn’t doable under the House GOP budget plan, which only includes $4.5 trillion for tax cuts.
– House Democrats are taking to the East Front of the Capitol today at noon to rail against the budget resolution. This comes after several House Republicans faced protests back home over spending cuts and DOGE-directed layoffs during rowdy town halls or outside their district offices.
– There are now just 17 days until the federal government runs out of spending authority. Congress is nowhere close to a deal that would avert a government shutdown come March 14.
Conservatives. This is where Johnson’s problems begin. House GOP leaders can only lose one Republican vote if all members show up and vote, and it appears that they’ve already lost one.
Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), who has been a thorn in Johnson’s side, said Monday that passing the GOP spending plan would make the budget deficit worse, not better.
It seems like we can count Massie, a close ally of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, as a hard no. Massie rarely takes a firm position like this without actually meaning it and following through on it.
Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.) said she was a “no” on the budget resolution as well. Spartz, though, has been known to flip her position on key votes. Although her opposition is pretty firm here.
Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio) said on X Monday night that there is “no path” to pass the budget resolution without a firm plan on how to handle the March 14 government-funding deadline. Davidson is a close ally of House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio). Yet Jordan told us voting for the budget resolution is a no brainer.
“This bill cuts spending, cuts taxes, helps national defense and secures the border,” Jordan said. “Sounds like we’re being Republicans to me.”
Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) also said he has problems with the bill. He’s seeking deeper spending cuts and wants the tax cuts made permanent, as Trump has demanded.
The problem for Johnson is that if it looks like the bill will go down, the no votes could pile up.
Moderates. Unsurprisingly, the moderates who hemmed and hawed about the budget resolution and how the cuts were too deep are now falling in line after heavy lobbying by the GOP leadership.
Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) said that he felt “a little more comfort” with the plan than he did previously.
Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.), not a true moderate but who hails from the blue Northeast, went from a “lean no” to undecided to a lean yes in one day.
Senate. Fresh off passing their own budget resolution — and on the eve of the House vote — Daines and Crapo had a 90-minute audience with Trump in the Oval Office, as we scooped. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent joined the meeting by phone.
The Senate duo pitched Trump on making the 2017 tax cuts permanent as part of budget reconciliation, something the House budget resolution wouldn’t realistically have room for. But this is a key demand of Senate GOP leaders.
“At the end of the meeting, the president said ‘I support this,’” Daines told us of his pitch, adding that it would “introduce uncertainty” if the tax provisions were to expire.
Daines insisted he wasn’t rooting for the House to fail. But by pointing to Trump’s backing of the Senate GOP position on permanency, Daines was sending a clear message.
Still, this is a big move by two key senators the day before the high-stakes House vote.
Attendance will be a critical issue today. House Democrats have several members who’ve been away from the Capitol for extended periods of time this year. Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Ariz.) has missed every vote besides the speaker vote on the first day as he recuperates from lung cancer. Rep. Brittany Pettersen (D-Colo.) had a baby three weeks ago. And Rep. Fredrica Wilson (D-Fla.) has missed 26 votes. (Check out Enbloc AI’s query that helped us with this. And schedule your demo now).
Republicans had double-digit absences on Monday night, but GOP leaders were pressing for everyone to be in town today.
