Speaker Mike Johnson and the House Republican leadership have two major hurdles to overcome next month.
First: This weekend or early next week, House GOP leaders will have to figure out how to pass both the massive five-bill FY2026 spending package and the separate stopgap DHS funding bill.
Second: If and when there’s an agreement to overhaul the Department of Homeland Security funding bill, Johnson is going to have to wrestle with a very conflicted House that’s pulling him in a multitude of different directions.
Let’s first discuss the immediate issue: the House’s passage of the five-bill FY2026 spending package and the short-term DHS funding patch.
In theory, it should be easy for the House Republican leadership to jam through these two measures. The five-bill funding package cleared the House just last week with 341 votes. And a two-week DHS funding patch, on its own, is defensible. Republicans should back it because President Donald Trump is in favor of it.
Democrats should back it because, theoretically, it will allow for negotiations on changes to DHS immigration enforcement policy, their main ask in the last week. It’s in direct response to the two deadly shootings by federal officers in Minnesota that set off a national uproar. And that gets to the core of Trump’s signature issue — immigration.
But nothing is easy in the House.
House Democrats have made abundantly clear that agreement — the two-week DHS CR plus a re-vote on the five bills — was a deal that Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer cut with the White House. If Johnson needs Democratic votes to get the measures through the House, that could come at a cost.
The House GOP leadership has two choices in passing the funding packages. They can try to clear it under a rule, which requires a simple majority. Or they can hope for a two-thirds majority under suspension of the rules.
A rule would require Johnson finding 218 Republicans to vote to pass it — a tough task in his barely-there majority. But passing it under suspension would require dozens of Democratic votes, which could give House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries a lot of power. This doesn’t seem likely right now.
Every which way. During the duration of the two-week CR, Johnson is going to have a lot to balance. The hardline House Freedom Caucus doesn’t want any changes in the DHS bill, which means Johnson will need Trump to help win over their votes. Changes to warrant rules for ICE and CBP officers are unpopular among House Republicans. But that seems to be a necessity for most Democrats.
Then, Johnson is going to have to deal with a number of ancillary issues, ranging from lawmakers who want the chamber to extend the sales season for E15 fuel to others who would like the speaker to somehow force Senate Majority Leader John Thune to hold a vote on the SAVE Act.
And remember: Johnson is going to have a one-vote cushion beginning next week.
House Republicans have an 11 a.m. call today to discuss the legislative outlook.
