Speaker Mike Johnson is one step closer to his biggest achievement since becoming speaker 575 days ago. And President Donald Trump is on the brink of securing the first step toward a major legislative victory, one that will define his return to the White House.
The “One Big, Beautiful Bill” Act cleared its key procedural hurdle around 2:40 a.m. Every Republican except for Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) voted for the rule. All of the House Freedom Caucus members who said that they still needed weeks to work on this bill ended up voting to proceed to debate. That came after Trump warned them a no vote on the legislation amounted to the “ultimate betrayal” – you’re either with Trump now or you’re not.
The rule mandates two hours of debate for the legislation. As of 4:40 a.m., there were 35 minutes left on the clock. Democrats have some procedural options to prolong the debate. And we’re sure they’ll take them. Anything to delay final passage.
The big question now is what House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries does. Jeffries is afforded what’s called “the magic minute,” which allows him to speak on the floor for an unlimited period of time during debate.
Jeffries can’t stop the bill. But he can delay it and grab some headlines in the process. That’s oftentimes worth it for congressional leaders during a moment like this. House GOP leadership says it believes Jeffries will only speak for an hour. But they don’t know that for sure. Neither do Jeffries’s colleagues.
Yet at this point, Johnson is on the cusp of a floor vote that will both define this Congress and his speakership. Over the last several months, Johnson patiently pushed, prodded, pleaded and persuaded his GOP colleagues to back the measure. He worked closely with House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) and Energy and Commerce Committee Chair Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) to craft the package, one of the most complex in history.
We will have lots more to say about Johnson and the House Republican Conference in tomorrow’s AM edition.
For Jeffries, this is also a defining moment. Democrats now have the centerpiece of their campaign to retake the House following last year’s deflating defeat – along with everything Trump does and says over the next 18 months. They won’t lack issues to run on.
Johnson, Trump and GOP leaders will have pushed through a measure cutting off health-care for millions of Americans, extended tax cuts for the wealthy and huge corporations, all while also making big reductions in other social-safety net programs. Further fights over spending and the role of the federal government in the wake of DOGE-driven layoffs of tens of thousands of employees will take place this fall.
“We’ll certainly defeat them next year so we can end this national nightmare, cut Donald Trump’s presidency in half legislatively and begin the process of redeeming the American dream for the people we represent,” Jeffries told Democrats during a caucus meeting Wednesday night.
Yet if Democrats can’t take the House in 2026 and deliver on this promise, Jeffries will face questions over whether he ever can.
What’s in, what’s out: The manager’s amendment made a number of changes to House Republicans’ tax package. It includes the side deal with blue-state Republicans to lift the SALT cap to $40,000 for people making under $500,000. It also tweaks the alternative minimum tax exemption to phase out at a lower income level.
To please conservatives and nuclear-energy backers, the amendment mandates cutting off key IRA clean energy credits sooner while going softer on nuclear incentives, as we scooped. Nuclear tax credits keep their transferability and are not nixed until 2031.
It also lowers the remittance tax rate from 5% to 3.5%, and renames new savings accounts for kids from “MAGA accounts” to “Trump accounts.” Message received.
The manager’s amendment includes an additional $12 billion to reimburse states for border security. And it also includes $100 million for the Office of Management and Budget to improve “regulatory processes” at the following agencies: Education, Energy, HHS, DHS, DOJ, CFPB and EPA.
There’s still a long way to go. The Senate will have to take up this legislation and pass it, with a potential debt default looming in August. Senate Republicans are expected to remake the bill, especially the tax-cut package. Trump will be in the middle of all that.
If and when that happens, Johnson and Trump would then face the prospect of once again muscling the revised package through the House in a couple months with the same three-seat margin – this time with the debt-limit clock ticking.
There are two things we’ll be watching when this goes to the Senate: changes to Medicaid and the Inflation Reduction Act.
The gutting of the IRA credits will be the subject of intense lobbying in the coming weeks and months.
Scoop: A bipartisan group of senators is heading to Ottawa on Friday for meetings with top Canadian officials, as U.S.-Canada relations remain unusually strained. A major focus will be the Trump administration’s unprecedented tariff regime.
The delegation will be led by Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (N.H.), the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. She’ll be joined by Sens. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), Tim Kaine (D-Va.), Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and Peter Welch (D-Vt.).
The group is scheduled to meet with Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand, Defense Minister David McGuinty, Minister of Industry Mélanie Joly, as well as the Business Council of Canada with additional meetings likely.
