All of 2025 has been building toward this week for Speaker Mike Johnson.
The House Republican leadership is planning to push through the massive, multi-trillion dollar GOP reconciliation bill as early as today, despite serious doubts from moderates and conservatives.
It would be the culmination of months of work by House and Senate Republican congressional leaders and give President Donald Trump a signature legislative achievement, perhaps the biggest he’ll have during this second stint in the Oval Office.
The schedule — as it stands now — is to bring the House back at 9 a.m. today and vote as soon as possible.
Remember that the House Republican leadership team – Johnson, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer – are whipping this bill on an incredibly condensed timeline against lots of opposition. Can they even pass a rule? There’s some skepticism in the GOP leadership that they will.
Reps. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) voted against the rule in the Rules Committee Tuesday night, a harbinger of what will be a tough floor fight over the next few days.
A wave of summer thunderstorms across the country have snarled flights into Washington since late Tuesday. The House GOP leadership is keeping a close eye on flight statuses and will make decisions partially based on how many members are in town. Johnson said on Fox News’ ”Hannity” Tuesday night that the vote could be delayed until Thursday.
The internal political dynamics. OK, so can House Republicans pass this bill? That’s a very good question. As it looks right now, the answer is no. But that’s an overly simplistic view of the situation.
Are wavering House Republicans really going to say no to Trump with his signature legislative bill on the House floor? Can Johnson set ‘em up so Trump can knock ‘em down? Here’s our Big Mad Index of the Republicans to watch on the bill.
There are two buckets of no votes that you should think about: the House Freedom Caucus, and then the rest of the GOP conference. Let’s start with the HFC.
Predictably, the hard-right faction is strongly opposed to the Senate-passed bill. Conservatives assert Johnson didn’t stay true to the House’s budget, which called for $2 trillion in spending cuts for $4.5 trillion in tax cuts. Team Johnson thinks this is an incorrect read of the speaker’s pledge to House Republicans.
So far, a bunch of HFC members are saying they’ll vote no. Norman told us that he’s a no on the rule and on the bill. Roy expressed major concerns over projections that the package could add trillions of dollars to the deficit. Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) said on local radio that he doesn’t believe the bill will “pass as is” and said he agreed with Elon Musk that the bill is “bad.”
Trump and Johnson got many of these Republicans to flip last time with the idea that the bill would get better. That string has run out.
The same skepticism runs through the rest of the GOP conference.
Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), who recently said he wouldn’t run for reelection, is being coy about his intentions.
Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.) has problems with the deep Medicaid cuts in the bill. Valadao is from a swing district in California, and, quite frankly, he’s probably right to be skeptical of this bill from a political perspective.
Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (Pa.), another Republican from a district that Trump lost, has concerns about cuts to IRA tax credits and Medicaid. Fitzpatrick is a team player, but this could be a tough bill for him to back.
Rep. Greg Murphy (R-N.C.) has been in talks with the Trump administration over his concerns with the bill.
Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa), who is known to carefully mull over legislation, has problems with the Medicaid provisions.
Wisconsin GOP Reps. Derrick Van Orden and Glenn Grothman had problems with rural hospital cuts in the Senate package.
Newly elected Pennsylvania GOP Reps. Rob Bresnahan and Ryan Mackenzie both had Medicaid and IRA concerns. Rep. Mike Carey (R-Ohio) had issues with IRA credit repeals, as well.
We spoke to several people on the House GOP whip team Tuesday night who were expressing alarm about what they’re seeing on their whip cards. These sources said that they were racking up no’s from lawmakers who they didn’t expect would be opposed to the bill.
Inside the leadership’s strategy. They’ll use Trump to the extent needed, and their message is simple – despite what House Republicans hoped to see in this bill, this is what they face now. And it’s time to put it up for a vote.
There’s several other things to consider here. First, a pro-Trump super PAC is already running ads bashing Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) for repeatedly criticizing the bill. Secondly, Sen. Thom Tillis’ (R-N.C.) sudden retirement announcement after he too opposed the bill. Every rank-and-file Republican sees those two events and knows what it means for them.
Democrats’ warning. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told us in an interview that he’ll work to ensure the GOP bill would haunt “every single swing-seat Republican” who votes for it during the midterms.
Jeffries signaled that access to health care will be the most potent liability for the GOP. “The American people do not trust the Republican Party with respect to health care,” Jeffries said. Remember, Republicans lost the House in 2018 after merely attempting to repeal the Affordable Care Act.
“The whole enterprise is a toxic scheme, but it is clear that the attack on healthcare is probably the most reviled part,” Jeffries said.
But don’t expect a crazy long Magic Minute. The Democratic leader is expected to speak for approximately an hour tomorrow, according to a source close to Jeffries’ office.
