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Trump and Johnson

The House GOP’s pitfalls in executing Trump’s agenda

DORAL, Fla. — As far as policy retreats go, today is a big day for House Republicans.

Lawmakers will be holed up in the Donald J. Trump Grand Ballroom from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. to plot the future of President Donald Trump’s agenda.

Then they’ll have a session with House GOP leaders, another with Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas), plus breakout discussions with committees involved in executing a reconciliation package that will carry Trump’s agenda. Finally, they’ll hear from Vice President JD Vance.

So if you’re waking up this morning — perhaps at the Trump National Doral Miami, a bit bleary-eyed from Monday night’s “dinner on the lawn” and ensuing merriment — take a moment to consider some of the political headwinds House Republicans face as they try to pass Trump’s agenda.

1) Timing. One of Speaker Mike Johnson’s selling points as he lobbied Trump to endorse one reconciliation bill instead of two was that House Republicans could push through one bill much quicker than a pair of packages.

Trump kind of bought the argument — more on that in a minute — and now it’s on Johnson to deliver. Republicans have 27 days to pass a budget resolution to meet the speaker’s deadline of Feb. 24. That means they need to release a budget resolution and pass it through the House and Senate quickly.

Johnson said the House Budget Committee will begin marking up the budget resolution next week. The Louisiana Republican added that he’s still adhering to his rapid-fire timeline.

After they pass the budget resolution, Republicans have to craft the actual reconciliation package. That will involve negotiating on everything from tax policy to energy policy to border and immigration policy. That could take weeks or even months.

Remember: Then Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin promised tax reform would pass by August 2017. It was eventually signed into law in December 2017. In this instance, we’re not questioning Johnson’s leadership capabilities. It’s just that we’re a tad skeptical of the timeline.

2) Trump. Trump has an iron grip on the GOP, as strong as it’s ever been. But he’s a bit difficult to pin down on some issues.

For example, during his Monday night speech to House Republicans, Trump again cast doubt on whether he wants one or two reconciliation bills.

“Whether it’s one bill, two bills, I don’t care,” Trump said.

And with that, Trump reignited a major fight among Hill Republicans that pits members of the leadership against one another, the House versus the Senate and hardline conservatives versus everyone else.

This may seem like a minor point to Trump, but it’s been a massive dispute on Capitol Hill. House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) has effectively told anyone who would listen that one bill is the only way Trump’s tax cuts will get done.

Trump  the dealmaker — is focused on the big-picture issues, not the minutiae of legislative procedure. During his address to House Republicans, Trump said he wants to cut the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15%. Trump also insisted that he wants Congress to eliminate taxes on tips, Social Security payments and overtime. These are hugely expensive propositions.

The real trouble for congressional Republicans is that negotiations on this reconciliation package are sure to drag out. The debt limit and government funding have to be addressed soon. And Trump will grow frustrated that he’s not getting his priorities — including border security money — across the finish line quickly enough.

3) Margins. The House margin is 218 Republicans to 215 Democrats. Florida voters won’t fill the now vacant seats held by former GOP Reps. Matt Gaetz and Mike Waltz until early April.

But the Senate Foreign Relations Committee is expected to vote on Rep. Elise Stefanik’s (R-N.Y.) nomination to be ambassador to the United Nations later this week. Stefanik could be confirmed by the Senate next week.

That means House Republicans would be down to a 217-to-215 seat majority. Thus, if they lose a single vote, the reconciliation package fails.

To put this in perspective, Republicans lost 13 votes on the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017 — including Stefanik, ironically.

Keeping Republican defections to zero is an incredibly tall task. And it means that every single House Republican has tremendous leverage. Trump put it this way Monday evening:

4) Newbies. Sixty-one percent of House Republicans — 134 members — have been elected to the chamber since the 2017 Trump tax cuts were enacted. Thus, more than half of the GOP conference has never had to deal with high-pressure, one-party legislating.

There are new committee chairs, as well. Rep. Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) was just elected chair of the House Energy and Commerce Committee. His panel is charged with finding as much as $2 trillion in savings. Newly elected House Education and the Workforce Chair Tim Walberg (R-Mich.) will have to lead his committee to unearth as much as $500 billion in savings.

About those cuts: Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) is leading 150 House Democrats in asking the Trump administration exactly what funding projects are being paused.

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Editorial photos provided by Getty Images. Political ads courtesy of AdImpact.