House Republicans raised $35.2 million last night from a glitzy black tie dinner with President Donald Trump, money that will be used for the reelection campaigns of dozens of lawmakers.
Yet Trump and House GOP leaders still can’t convince a bloc of hardline conservative Republicans to drop their opposition to a Senate-revised budget resolution needed to unlock an expedited pathway to cut taxes and a huge reduction in federal spending.
Trump’s stern suggestion to those members, as delivered in a tuxedo from the podium at the National Building Museum: “Close your eyes and get there. It’s a phenomenal bill. Stop grandstanding.” Trump said we are “one big, beautiful bill signing away from the greatest economy in the history of the world.” 2
Trump said if his agenda is enacted, House Republicans will win “40, 50 or even 60 seats.”
“If we don’t get it done because of stupidity or a couple of people who want to show how great they are, you just have to laugh at them or smile at them or cry right in their face,” Trump added.
That harsh presidential message was aimed very pointedly at several Republicans: House Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris (R-Md.), Reps. Chip Roy (R-Texas), Scott Perry (R-Pa.), David Schweikert (R-Ariz.), Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.), Lloyd Smucker (R-Pa.), Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) and others.
It was a foreshadowing of what’s to come from Trump. Tuesday was the soft sell. Trump had a group of wavering Republicans at the White House and tried to convince them to back the budget resolution approved by the Senate on Saturday.
Now, with House GOP leaders preparing for a key procedural vote as early as today, Trump’s tone has hardened considerably. It will only get harder from here.
Because Trump followed Speaker Mike Johnson and House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith’s (R-Mo.) advice, much of the president’s legislative program is locked up in one bill. And this group of conservative Republicans’ unwillingness to budget has stalled Johnson’s pathway to bring the budget resolution to the House floor.
In the face of a trade war, sliding global markets – Asian markets were down again today as Trump’s new tariffs kicked in – and geopolitical instability, there’s new urgency around the White House agenda.
But the stubbornly large group of House Republicans who refuse to accede to Trump’s demands has raised uncomfortable questions inside the GOP:
– Has Trump lost some sway with the conservative members of the House Republican Conference?
– Can Johnson bring the budget resolution to the floor this week? Or will Johnson have to cancel next week’s scheduled House recess to continue the pressure campaign?
– Most importantly, does the Republican leadership need to begin thinking about a “Plan B” for getting this done?
We’re seeing some limited movement this morning. The House Rules Committee has noticed an 8:45 a.m. hearing on the budget. This is the first step toward bringing the measure to the House floor.
Wither Trump? It’s tremendously difficult for members or even senators to say no to a president of their own party. That’s how former President Barack Obama got Obamacare done. That’s how former President Joe Biden was able to pass the Inflation Reduction Act.
The White House’s sales job Tuesday was to a group of two dozen or so Republican members. It’s easy to resist entreaties in a large setting. It’s much harder when you are face-to-face with the president. If Trump – who effectively won this House majority – asks a rank-and-file Republican directly for their vote in order to salvage his agenda, it’s going to be very hard to say no.
The GOP leadership’s timeline. The first step for Johnson was to schedule the Rules Committee meeting this morning. That means the GOP leadership can bring the rule to the floor today. The rule vote is critical; if House Republicans pass the rule, they will most likely pass the underlying resolution.
Johnson can’t afford another day of delays. The Republican leadership is willing to keep the House in session over the weekend and into next week. But that will be an unpopular decision, with congressional delegations ready to go abroad and Passover beginning at sundown Saturday.
The not-so-good Plan Bs. There really is no fallback plan if House Republicans can’t pass this budget. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has made abundantly clear that this compromise resolution is as aggressive a document as the Senate could pass.
But it’s time to at least consider potential Plan Bs.
1) Start reconciliation without passing a budget resolution. Conservative hardliners insist that the House doesn’t need to pass a budget to begin crafting a reconciliation bill. That’s true, and it has some merit. The House leadership could decide to craft a reconciliation package first and then write a budget resolution to fit the bill. The idea is to get Republicans excited about the bill, not a vaguely written budget resolution. Ultimately, however, the test will be how far Senate Republicans can go. This Trump agenda can’t be enacted without reconciliation protection to overcome a Democratic filibuster.
2) Amend the current resolution. This is a really suboptimal idea that we’ve been hearing about. If House Republicans amend the joint resolution, their Senate GOP counterparts could just ignore it. This doesn’t get Republicans anywhere.
3) Enter a formal conference negotiation. Some conservatives have called for House and Senate Republicans to open formal negotiations to resolve the differences between the two chambers’ budget plans. Good luck bridging the gap between $4 billion in cuts and $2 trillion in spending cuts.
