Congress is back this week for what can only be described as a monumental five (or more) days in session.
House members left town on June 12. The Senate left Wednesday afternoon. Since then, the United States has joined Israel’s war against Iran, bombing three key nuclear sites and threatening additional attacks if Iran doesn’t end its pursuit of nuclear weapons. President Donald Trump also effectively called for a regime change. More on all this below.
Domestically, this is a massive week for Trump and his legislative agenda in Washington. There are just 11 days until July 4. That’s Speaker Mike Johnson, Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Trump’s deadline to get the “One Big, Beautiful Bill” signed into law. This is going to be a huge challenge that requires focus, discipline and, quite frankly, some luck.
All told, a lot needs to fall in place for Senate Republicans if they’re to meet Thune’s goal of kicking off the floor process by midweek.
What’s going down. The Senate is in the middle of the high-stakes Byrd Bath, with Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough deciding which provisions of the massive GOP package meet the strict guidelines for reconciliation.
MacDonough and her team have already thrown a lot out of the bill, including significant pieces of the Senate Banking Committee’s agenda, such as axing all funding for the CFPB.
Conservatives keep getting dealt other body blows as well. We learned overnight that a reworked version of Sen. Mike Lee’s (R-Utah) REINS Act was determined to violate the Byrd Rule. This was an effort to give Congress new authority to claw back federal regulations. The parliamentarian’s ruling is a huge blow for GOP leaders as well.
MacDonough also knocked out a Republican provision that limits judges from issuing nationwide injunctions, handing Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer a win. MacDonough also axed language barring undocumented immigrants from receiving food stamps and forcing states to take on a larger share of SNAP costs.
All of this accounts for tens of billions of dollars in savings in the package, so Republicans are going to have a math problem that will cause immediate problems in the Senate, as well as angering House Republicans. The White House has been talking to House conservatives about the changes in the bill.
MacDonough did, however, uphold the Commerce Committee’s proposed ban on state-level AI regulation, which is tied to broadband funding. Yet this could cause big problems on the floor, where Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) has already said he’ll partner with Democrats on an amendment to scrap the provision during the vote-a-rama.
The most important Byrd meeting happens today. The Senate Finance Committee, which has all of Republicans’ tax and Medicaid priorities, will hold arguments in front of the parliamentarian.
Senate Republicans expect to see updated legislative text ahead of tonight’s high-stakes GOP conference meeting. It’s possible the new text will include a stabilization fund for rural hospitals, a key ask of Republican senators concerned about the impacts of the Medicaid provider tax cuts.
Cross-chamber action. Things aren’t all hunky-dory between House and Senate Republicans. Remember that Johnson has spent the last few months saying that he hoped and expected the Senate to change very little in the House bill. That looks to be fading at the moment.
The speaker was caught flatfooted by massive changes to the provider tax in the bill. Johnson is especially attuned to the concerns over rural hospitals given his large rural Louisiana district. And House Republican leaders don’t think the Senate’s proposed stabilization fund will alleviate enough members’ concerns.
Still lingering out there is the massive chasm between the House and Senate on SALT. Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.), a former House member, has been trying to negotiate with Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.).
The SALT crew has said they won’t go below $40,000 or renegotiate their deal. But it seems the income threshold could be the focal point of any possible agreement. Again, blue-state House Republicans have incentive to hold out here. But we doubt they have the mettle to do so.
Also, there could be a revenue shortage that Senate Republicans have to deal with. On that front, Axis Research has a new poll that says Republicans should consider putting back in the bill a tobacco-related revenue raiser that the Senate stripped. Axis polled swing districts in New York, Nebraska and Pennsylvania — plus the state of Maine. This provision raises $12 billion over a decade. We wrote about this last week.
Key moments this week. Attorney General Pam Bondi will be in front of the House Appropriations Committee today at 2 p.m. and the Senate Appropriations Committee Wednesday.
Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell will testify before the House Financial Services Committee Tuesday and the Senate Banking Committee Wednesday. HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will be in front of the House Energy and Commerce Committee Tuesday.
The House will vote on its first of the 12 FY2026 spending bills, MilCon-VA. These GOP-drafted bills are coming in at funding levels much lower than Democrats or the Senate will accept. But House GOP leaders say they’re determined to draw the line on spending.
OMB Director Russ Vought will testify before the Senate Appropriations Committee on Wednesday about the rescissions package. Appropriations Committee Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) is among the leading critics of the House-passed bill, and its fate is far from certain in the Senate.
What’s virtually guaranteed, though, is that the bill will need to be amended — either in committee or on the floor — to win enough GOP votes. Republicans will also need to pass it by July 18. Oh, and there’s another vote-a-rama at the end of it.
