It’s Day 16 of the government shutdown. There’s no resolution in sight to this crisis.
When Sen. John Thune was elected as Republican leader last November, there was plenty of skepticism among both rank-and-file GOP senators and MAGA world over the South Dakotan’s ability to deal with President Donald Trump.
The pair had a sometimes-tumultuous relationship coming out of Trump’s first term, especially the fallout from the contested 2020 election and the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. Trump even called for Thune to be primaried.
Thune worked hard to mend those ties, including a key trip to Mar-a-Lago in March 2024. Now, as Senate majority leader, Thune has delivered for Trump on multiple fronts — from quick Cabinet confirmations to passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act to changing Senate rules to confirm Trump’s nominees more quickly amid Democrats’ slow-walking.
Overall, Thune has managed to keep Senate Republicans mostly together, even on issues where most of them disagree with Trump, most notably on tariffs.
“Because [Thune] has been winning votes, his opinion matters to the White House,” said Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), a close Thune confidant. “And that’s one of the reasons why so many members have stuck with John on a lot of really difficult votes, because they know that it matters in terms of our ability to negotiate with the White House.”
Now, in the midst of the most serious crisis of Thune and Trump’s tenure — a seemingly never-ending government shutdown — their relationship is being put to the ultimate test.
A tough job. Thune has stayed on-message since the shutdown began. The same can’t be said for Trump, who recently signaled he’d negotiate a health care deal with Democrats — without saying the government should re-open first. This fed into GOP fears that Trump would go around them on the health care fight.
Thune has also expressed some public discomfort over the severity of OMB’s aggressive moves intended to punish Democrats, from rescinding blue state energy and infrastructure funding to imposing large-scale layoffs of federal workers.
These actions have only hardened Democrats’ positions, something Thune undoubtedly recognizes. Trump delayed some of those moves, such as mass layoffs, in part because of Thune’s private warnings, according to sources familiar with the matter.
Thune has the standing now to push back on Trump’s instincts privately. And that doesn’t seem to be angering Trump, who keeps shouting out Thune during his public appearances, including as recently as Wednesday. The two speak on the phone or text nearly every day.
We talked to several GOP senators who said Thune has done more than enough — especially with the more controversial nominees — to earn Trump’s trust.
“We’ve never embarrassed the president on those things. That’s because of John’s leadership,” Rounds said. “I think that carries weight with the White House. He’s also been around a long time and he understands the nature of leadership… That pays dividends.”
Yet Thune has to constantly look over his shoulder. For one, Trump may get so exasperated with the impasse that he tries to cut a deal with Democrats that Republicans loathe. That fear is what drove Thune and Speaker Mike Johnson to convince Trump to cancel an initial sit-down with Democratic leaders. Even worse, Trump could call on Thune to gut the legislative filibuster.
Thune acknowledged at a recent press conference that there’s “always” pressure on the filibuster. But if Trump sees the filibuster as impeding his agenda — as he did during his first term — it’s not inconceivable that the president could re-up those efforts.
“I could see at some point that being a potential conversation. But that’s not good for anybody,” Thune told us in a recent interview. “We should avoid that at all costs. And I think we can if we can just get the government open.”
Trump recently called for the scrapping of another sacrosanct institutional prerogative — the Senate Judiciary Committee’s “blue slip” policy — but Thune shot that down quickly. At Wednesday’s lunch meeting, Senate GOP Conference Chair Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) sought to keep Republicans united in support of the filibuster, saying Democrats are trying to “bait” them into eliminating it.
This is news. There’s a bipartisan group of senators discussing several different potential off-ramps involving the enhanced Obamacare subsidies. The group, led in part by Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), is discussing the possibility of holding two side-by-side votes intended to end the shutdown, per multiple sources familiar with the matter.
The first vote would be to reopen the government, while the second would be on a one-year extension of the Obamacare enhanced premium tax credits, plus a commitment to pass a longer-term solution by a date certain.
Locking this in would require unanimous consent, of course, and Republicans have already ruled out the idea of tying an Obamacare extension to government funding. Plus, progressives — including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries — have rejected a one-year Obamacare credits extension, which would punt the problem to right before the midterms.
“If they want us to actually negotiate, quit holding the American people hostage and open the government back up,” said Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.), who speaks with Trump multiple times per day.
Yet the bipartisan talks clearly illustrate a desire among lawmakers in both parties to find an escape hatch for a shutdown that’s lasted far longer than many lawmakers predicted.
Democrats have said over and over that the only way the shutdown ends is if Trump gets directly involved and pushes Thune to negotiate an Obamacare deal with Democrats. Thune on Wednesday dismissed the idea, saying the president and his team are already engaged.
A White House official said Trump, Thune, Johnson and Hill Republicans “are all in lockstep and have been the entire Democrat shutdown,” adding: “It’s not difficult to be on the same page when you’re on the right one.”
