House Republicans’ FISA debacle and their ongoing refusal to pass legislation to end the unprecedented Department of Homeland Security shutdown have made clear that there’s only one functional chamber on Capitol Hill right now — the Senate. And it’s barely so.
This is putting a ton of new pressure on Senate Majority Leader John Thune, whose majority is suddenly at risk. President Donald Trump’s sagging approval ratings and the GOP’s inability to notch legislative wins due to constant infighting are a burden too.
Plus, Thune is dealing with a MAGA onslaught over the SAVE America Act, a relentless push to gut the filibuster and an Iranian war that’s exacerbating affordability concerns while providing Democrats with new political ammo.
Despite the unique set of challenges, Thune is doubling down on his easy-going leadership style — even as Senate GOP leaders are privately fuming at their House counterparts for dumping many of these crises in their laps.
“They’ve got their limitations, and so do we,” Thune told us Monday. “So we’ve just got to figure it out.”
Inside the conference. The SAVE America Act is a touchy subject inside the Senate GOP Conference. The bill, which requires photo ID and proof of citizenship to vote in federal elections, doesn’t have a path to passage.
But that hasn’t stopped some Senate Republicans — namely Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) — from ginning up anger at Thune among MAGA followers online. Thune decided to hold a prolonged floor debate as a way to placate conservatives and, indirectly, try to prove that their preferred method of passing the bill — the so-called “talking filibuster” — was unrealistic.
Trump made it even harder for Thune by injecting an issue into the debate — restricting mail-in ballots — that deeply divides Republicans. Democrats, led by Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.), exploited those divisions.
Suddenly, any attempt at a messaging vote to make Democrats look unreasonable for opposing voter ID was no longer as effective.
Yet Thune on Monday said the Senate might return to the controversial bill after reconciliation, FISA and another Trump nominations package. Restarting the SAVE debate would require another procedural vote. And it’s unclear whether MAGA world and Lee — who is calling for nuking the filibuster to pass SAVE — would even be satisfied with additional floor debate.
“John is playing footsie with MAGA on the SAVE Act. Nothing he does will ever satisfy them,” said a GOP senator who was granted anonymity to deliver a candid assessment. “Why are we carrying on with this charade?”
Senators don’t take kindly to outside pressure campaigns like the ones Lee has been amplifying on social media. And according to multiple GOP senators, Lee rarely — if ever — speaks up during closed-door conference meetings, which is normally the forum to persuade colleagues.
Reconciliation. Republicans did a big messaging push last week for Tax Day, centered on the tax cuts from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Trump also hit the road to tout “no tax on tips.” But this barely broke through amid Trump’s Iran war whiplash and his feud with the pope.
It’s all fueling a push to expand the GOP’s current budget reconciliation bill beyond just ICE and Border Patrol — or pass another reconciliation bill in the fall — to give Republicans “more issues that we can run on and contrast with the Democrats,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who’s in the middle of a bruising primary.
Thune opposes expanding the current reconciliation bill beyond immigration enforcement funding. Democrats blocked ICE funding after January’s fatal shootings of protesters by federal officers. Thune believes that would over-complicate what’s already a politically fraught process. And Thune is likely to get his way.
“It’s all about the math. It’s, what can you get 50 [in the Senate] and 218 [in the House] for?” Thune said. “And in this environment, that’s going to be challenging, to say the least.”
Those Republicans who wanted to go bigger aren’t going quietly. Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said Thune is “a very able guy” yet criticized him for believing it was possible to negotiate a deal on ICE reforms with Democrats, wasting precious time.
“I admire [Thune’s] optimism,” Kennedy told us. “But it didn’t work. So here we are.”
News on Dems’ plans. Reconciliation allows Democrats to force an unlimited number of politically uncomfortable votes as part of a vote-a-rama. The first of two will come later this week.
In an interview, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said Democrats will use it to hammer their affordability messaging, focusing on gas prices, health care and more.
“How did we get here? Not because we wanted to do this. They just can’t govern,” Schumer told us. “They gave us this opportunity. And we’re going to make maximum use of it by focusing on costs.”
News — An Emmer departure: Dennis Nalls, House Majority Whip Tom Emmer’s floor director, is leaving Capitol Hill for S-3 Group, a top lobbying shop that represents clients such as Google, Boeing and Koch Industries.
Floor director is one of the most critical roles for the House GOP whip. Nalls’ departure will cause some shuffling inside Emmer’s office. Emily Ackerman will become floor director, Justin Shockey will be named deputy floor director and Jack Garland will be promoted to floor assistant. Emmer is expected to announce the moves at the House Republican Conference meeting this morning.
