Republican leaders’ plan for a compromise budget resolution between the House and Senate is going to need a big assist from President Donald Trump to get over the finish line — again. And that‘s if it even makes it that far.
House deficit hawks are aghast at the idea of a budget blueprint that asks House committees to slash $1.5 trillion in federal spending but only locks the Senate into a $3 billion floor in cuts. That’s generating skepticism from House Republicans that the plan is workable, a dynamic we warned about on Monday.
GOP leaders are trying to strike a difficult balance. They want to move quickly to keep pressure on rank-and-file Republicans to fall in line and pass Trump’s legislative agenda. The Senate wants to pass a budget resolution this week.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune said GOP senators will have an “aspirational target” for spending cuts but need more flexibility than the House in order to account for Senate reconciliation rules.
Yet Republican fiscal hawks in both chambers want guarantees they’ll get massive spending cuts in the final reconciliation package. Republicans are punting on these big questions, for now.
House problems: House Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) told reporters the Senate needs to write its committee targets to be more in line with the House’s budget blueprint:
“If they don’t, I worry that it’s going to hurt momentum and you’re going to have people over here — especially the fiscal hawks — they’re going to say this is an unserious exercise. And I think you’re going to see people fall off.”
Indeed, it took no time at all for the House’s deficit hawks to start bashing the proposed compromise budget resolution.
“For me, it’s dead on arrival,” Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) said. Norman added he has a problem with going above a $4 trillion debt-limit increase. GOP leaders are considering a $5 trillion debt-limit hike.
Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) said he didn’t want to draw red lines yet, but that “it’s pretty much a joke to say that a $3 billion floor is a meaningful amount of cuts,” referring to the Senate’s vague instructions on spending cuts.
“The debt limit is tied to reasonable cuts, and a $3 billion floor ain’t looking very good,” Roy added.
Senate Republicans say they want to cut far beyond that number, of course, but they also want flexibility.
Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R-Pa.) told us he has “serious reservations” with the compromise resolution and would consider voting against it.
Remember: Speaker Mike Johnson doesn’t have much room to maneuver. Johnson could have up to a three-vote margin after special elections today.
Trump could once again solve this problem for House Republicans. If Trump gets actively involved in pushing this compromise budget resolution plan through the House – assuming it passes the Senate – then it will be hard for any Republicans to stand against him.
But making that bet comes with risks. Deficit hawks could hold out. House Republicans could wind up amending the compromise budget resolution and sending it back to the Senate again, which would put a third vote-a-rama in play.
What’s next: Senate Republicans are working to finalize details of their instructions in hopes of voting on the compromise budget resolution later this week. Thune suggested attendance could be a factor.
Republicans still need the Senate parliamentarian to issue a ruling on whether they can use a scoring method known as the “current policy baseline” to make the Trump tax cuts permanent. A final bipartisan meeting with the parliamentarian hasn’t been scheduled.
GOP senators have their weekly conference lunch today, so that will be a key moment for the Senate’s path forward.
