It’s not a happy Friday morning for Speaker Mike Johnson. This has been an absolutely disastrous week for the speaker, President-elect Donald Trump and Republicans on Capitol Hill.
It got so bad that during a meeting with lawmakers in his office Thursday, Johnson said “If anyone else can get 218 votes, God bless them,” according to three lawmakers present. Meaning they can become speaker other than him. Some in the room took it as a joke. But it seems clear Johnson is aware of his plight.
The federal government will shut down at midnight tonight. And the House Republican leadership — as divided, back-biting and leak-obsessed as ever — has to figure out how they’re going to keep federal employees on the job.
If you’re reading this newsletter, you almost certainly know that Johnson’s Trump-endorsed Plan-B-funding-and-debt-limit bill failed miserably on the House floor Thursday night. Thirty-eight Republicans ignored Trump and Johnson’s entreaties and voted against the bill, showing the limits of both men’s power in the House.
All but two House Democrats voted no. Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) voted present.
After the vote failed, Johnson, who was mobbed by reporters just feet from the House floor, tried to stay positive. “We will regroup and we will come up with another solution so stay tuned,” Johnson said.
Vice President-elect JD Vance and Russ Vought, Trump’s pick to run the Office of Management and Budget, will meet with members of the House Freedom Caucus today at 7:45 a.m. in Johnson’s office to try to resolve the impasse. We scooped this Thursday night. The HFC requested the meeting. It’s a big moment for Vance and Vought.
The HFC is sure to bring up that Vought rallied opposition to former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s 2023 debt-limit deal, which included spending cuts. Vought now is part of an incoming administration that’s asking Republicans to support a clean debt-limit increase.
What might Johnson’s solution look like? Now that Johnson has cycled through two options, the clock is ticking and he needs a plan — and fast.
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, who disagreed with Johnson’s decision to push a short-term CR after the election, said they’re “looking at some other options.”
“What exactly is in or out hasn’t been decided, but you start with keeping the government open,” Scalise told reporters leaving the Capitol.
Anything Johnson does now needs to have Trump’s support — either tacit, or better yet, public. The only way Johnson survives the Jan. 3 speaker vote is if Trump is openly backing him. And Thursday’s episode showed even that might not be enough.
1) Try the bill that failed — again. Plan B could become Plan C. Republicans could schedule a vote on the CR package that failed on Thursday again. That’s clearly the package Trump wants, after his “SUCCESS in Washington” tweet.
2) A negotiated settlement. Although Trump might not like it, Democrats have a price. Johnson can get together with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and figure out what Democrats need to support a bill to fund the government past tonight.
The problem for Johnson is this runs the risk of both dividing the House Republican Conference and angering Trump by trying to again cut a deal with Jeffries. Democrats have to be convinced Johnson won’t renege again, as well as being able to deliver enough votes. Sources close to Jeffries say they can deliver the votes. The question is can Johnson?
3) Drop the debt-limit increase. If Johnson were to drop the debt-limit increase from Thursday’s bill, that might be an attractive option for Republicans and even some Democrats. Remember, that’s a three-month CR with disaster funding and an extension of the farm bill. With a shutdown just hours away, this isn’t a bad move.
Plus, many Republicans are truly opposed to Trump’s call to extend the debt limit now. Congress is six months ahead of any debt-limit deadline. Also, Trump also dropped this demand into lawmakers’ laps two days before a shutdown.
4) A short-term CR. There was some talk inside the GOP leadership and among rank-and-file members about a short-term CR to fund federal agencies until early or mid-January. But this wouldn’t change the current reality: Johnson has a very small majority, he has to deal with a volatile incoming president, face down an emboldened mega-billionaire with a social media platform and has a generally uncooperative House Republican Conference.
On the other hand, this would at least allow the temperature to cool and get members home for Christmas. The GOP can regroup in January.
This doesn’t help Johnson remain speaker. But it would avoid a shutdown.
We should note that Johnson has some serious procedural headwinds as well. The GOP leadership once again didn’t give itself “same-day authority,” a parliamentary tactic that would allow the speaker to vote on a rule the same day the Rules Committee reports it. There are some procedural maneuvers Johnson can take to correct this.
The more likely scenario is that the speaker will try to pass something under suspension of the rules, which requires a two-thirds majority for passage.
The ultimate question that we don’t have an answer for right now is whether Trump and Vance really do want a shutdown. We’re not entirely sure what that would achieve or how Republicans could “win” such a showdown.
Here’s Vance as he left the Capitol Thursday evening.
It certainly sounds like they’re raring for a shutdown, which they think would impact President Joe Biden — who hasn’t been a player in this drama — more than Republicans. Yet remember the 2018 shutdown? Trump lost that after failing to achieve his goal on a border wall. It’s hard to see how this is different when he isn’t even in office for another month.
