It’s the last day of February. So it’s time to take a spin around Capitol Hill for a Leader Look.
This is a particularly advantageous time to pass judgment on the performance of the House and Senate Republican leaders. We’ll give the same treatment to the Democratic leadership next Friday.
President Donald Trump will address a joint session of Congress on Tuesday. Two weeks from today, the federal government will shut down if a funding deal isn’t reached. Lawmakers are in the midst of an enormously complex and controversial reconciliation process. It’s a very busy period.
Speaker Mike Johnson. This has been a particularly solid stretch for Johnson.
Let’s stipulate this: The Louisiana Republican still has to rely heavily on Trump, who could convince Republicans to do pretty much anything he wants to do. Johnson barely squeaked through his election to win a second term as speaker in early January, with Trump stepping in at the last minute. Johnson now faces a government shutdown in 14 days.
His margin of control in the House is also going to narrow even further soon. For part of March, Johnson will be down to a single vote.
But Johnson’s goal was to get a budget resolution through the tight-as-a-tick House Republican Conference – and he did it. Johnson somehow got conservative hardliners and moderates on the same page. That was something we weren’t certain he could do. It took real skill from Johnson, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer. And it took determination to move forward with the final vote after initially pulling the measure.
The NRCC may be on shaky financial footing, but Johnson has been working hard to raise money. He’s in Florida this weekend for the committee’s annual winter weekend.
Yet the challenges facing Johnson are numerous, especially whether he can cut bipartisan deals in a deeply divided Washington. Johnson will have to negotiate on a six-month-long CR with Democrats. That’s where he is going to get into some choppy waters. FWIW: Trump endorsed a CR Thursday evening.
In our conversations with Johnson, the Louisiana Republican acknowledges that he’ll need Democrats to pass a CR. Yet he also seems intent on codifying some of the DOGE cuts in a CR package. There’s no way Democrats will go for that. So how will Johnson thread that needle? He’ll make the political argument that Democrats are standing up for what Republicans dismiss as waste, fraud and abuse. But he doesn’t have much time to do this before the March 14 deadline.
Of course, the majority of Johnson’s focus in the near future will be on working with the Senate to craft a huge reconciliation bill. We don’t even have enough space to fully spell out how tough that’s going to be. But everyone will be watching.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune. Senate Republicans have confirmed Trump’s Cabinet and sub-Cabinet nominees at a record pace, a feat owed in large part to the South Dakota Republican’s willingness to play hardball with Democrats when it comes to late-night, weekend and — gasp! — Friday sessions.
Thune’s three-seat cushion is coming in handy, although very few Republicans have voted against any Trump nominees. For all the talk about Thune’s predecessor, Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), being a problem for the new majority leader, McConnell’s opposition to Trump’s most controversial nominees hasn’t impacted any of the vote outcomes.
And remember the freak-out over recess appointments? Thune has essentially made this irrelevant.
On budget reconciliation, Thune’s preferred two-track approach is no longer operative after the House passed its broad budget resolution package, though there’s a slim chance it could be resurrected if the tax and spending negotiations stall.
Still, Thune secured a win this week when Johnson embraced Senate GOP leaders’ red line on the tax talks — making the 2017 Trump tax cuts permanent. There remain other pressure points between the two chambers. Several GOP senators have taken issue with the House’s blueprint, from the potential Medicaid cuts to the $4 trillion debt-limit hike.
Like Johnson, Thune’s biggest task in the near term will be averting a government shutdown. Because Democratic votes are necessary in the Senate, it would be problematic if House Republicans send over a bill that codifies DOGE cuts.
The Senate GOP leader also has to deal with blowback from defense hawks who won’t go along with a full-year CR — something Thune suggested is the only logical option at this point. Sen. Susan Collins (Maine), the top GOP appropriator, is taking her concerns public. Collins said on Thursday that the Republican leadership “has asked us to prepare a long-term CR, which I do not believe is the right way to proceed.”
