The Next 100 Days: President Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office since returning to the White House started strong but are ending on a distinctly sour note.
Trump’s poll numbers are down sharply, especially on his handling of the economy. After a chaotic start, DOGE has fizzled out while Elon Musk is limping away to repair his battered corporate empire.
The U.S. national security apparatus is in disarray. Trump’s big success in shutting down illegal crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border has been overwhelmed by legal challenges to deportations, including the stunning removal of three American citizens, all young children.
Most importantly, neither Trump nor senior administration officials can coherently or consistently explain the president’s approach to tariffs and the trade war – or what the end game is.
With a critical Q1 2025 GDP report set to be released on Wednesday morning, there’s tremendous uncertainty on where the U.S. economy is heading. It’s unclear whether the country is moving toward a recession or not, and what that means politically for Republicans this fall and in the 2026 midterm elections.
On Capitol Hill: It’s fair to say this next three-month stretch – from today until the August recess – is the most important period of the 119th Congress. Perhaps the most important of Trump’s second term.
Speaker Mike Johnson will meet with Trump at the White House today at 2 p.m. This session will be with NRCC Chair Richard Hudson and Rep. Brian Jack (R-Ga.), the former Trump aide who’s now in charge of candidate recruitment for House Republicans.
Lawmakers are back in session after a busy two-week recess. House Republicans will begin on Tuesday marking up their massive reconciliation package, including potentially huge cuts to Medicaid and other social safety-net programs. They’re scrambling to come up with a package that meets Trump’s goal of cutting taxes for Americans making less than $200,000, plus four years of no taxes on tips, overtime and Social Security payments.
Trump acknowledged to reporters on Sunday that “it’ll take a little while” to draft and pass the tax-cut portion of reconciliation. Johnson has pledged to get a reconciliation bill to Trump’s desk by Memorial Day, now less than a month away. We’ve told you repeatedly that that timetable is likely unworkable, but GOP leaders are pressing their committee chairs to move as quickly as possible.
And as we scooped last week, the Treasury Department is expected to release an “X date” this week for when the U.S. government will hit the debt limit. That’s the real backstop for any reconciliation package.
This week’s House schedule on reconciliation markups:
Tuesday: The Homeland Security Committee, Armed Services Committee, Education and Workforce Committee.
Wednesday: Oversight and Government Reform Committee, Financial Services Committee.
House GOP leaders intend to have private conversations with rank-and file-lawmakers about just what they’re willing to stomach in terms of tax policy and Medicaid cuts. These conversations will begin this week in earnest.
Meanwhile, House Democratic leadership aides have been huddling with their own committee staffers to plot out how to make these upcoming markups “as painful as possible.”
The House Armed Services Committee released a proposal Sunday that spells out $150 billion in new Pentagon spending called for under the GOP reconciliation instructions. There’s $25 billion for Trump’s “Golden Dome” missile defense program, plus tens of billions of dollars for new ships, missiles, drones and other equipment. Democrats bashed the measure as “a partisan budget reconciliation gimmick” that avoids the normal legislative process.
Overall, Democrats have finally settled on a message – Trump is a tyrannical mess. Or a messy tyrant. Either way, Trump is a dangerous disaster.
“Donald Trump’s first 100 days have been 100 days from hell for the American people,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a Sunday letter. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries – who spent 12 hours on Sunday camped out on the Capitol steps – called the GOP reconciliation plan “unacceptable, it’s unconscionable, it’s un-American, and we’re going to do everything we can to bury it in the ground, never to rise again.”
Stefanik watch. GrayHouse, the GOP polling firm run by Landon Wall, has a fresh New York poll that’ll turn some heads in the House Republican Conference and in the Empire State.
The survey of 400 GOP primary voters has Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) leading a hypothetical primary campaign for governor with 44%, besting Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), who has 7%. And 44% of those polled were undecided.
In a head-to-head with Gov. Kathy Hochul, Stefanik is trailing 46%-40% with 14% undecided. Hochul is up on Lawler 45%-38% with 18% undecided. Here’s the poll and the memo from GrayHouse, which funded this survey on its own.
