This is Day 6 of the government shutdown. There’s no deal in sight to end the crisis.
The Senate is scheduled to vote this evening — for the fifth time — on advancing the House-passed bill to fund federal agencies through Nov. 21. There are no indications yet that additional Senate Democrats will vote for the GOP funding measure. Only three have done so up to now.
But Senate GOP leaders continue to believe that enough Democratic senators will cross the aisle eventually to pass the Republican CR, so they aren’t abandoning their strategy of forcing successive votes. If Democrats block the measure again, Senate Majority Leader John Thune can set up another vote for Tuesday. If that fails, the next vote wouldn’t be until Thursday.
Remember: These are cloture votes at a 60-vote threshold. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) is a no, meaning eight Senate Democrats would have to vote yes to move forward. Sens. John Fetterman (D-Pa.), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) and Angus King (I-Maine) are the only yes votes. King, an independent, caucuses with Democrats.
On Senate Democrats. The notion of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer folding at this point seems very unlikely. Yet if you’re Schumer, you’re watching very closely how a handful of Democratic senators are posturing themselves as the shutdown impacts begin to accumulate.
The first paycheck that some federal workers will miss is scheduled to hit on Friday, according to the General Services Administration. We’re also waiting to see whether President Donald Trump and OMB Director Russ Vought follow through on threats of mass layoffs or rescind more federal funding from blue states.
Trump told reporters on Sunday that layoffs are “taking place right now. It’s all because of the Democrats… It’s their shutdown, not our shutdown.”
The White House and GOP leaders are also pointing to looming problems for millions of Americans if a key federal nutrition program — WIC (Women, Infants and Children) — runs out of money. That’s projected to happen as soon as this week.
If Republicans maintain their current strategy, Senate Democrats will have to decide at some point whether what they’re fighting for — chiefly, an extension of the Obamacare enhanced premium tax credits — is worth the growing pain of the shutdown. Public polls show that Democrats have the upper hand on messaging, but that could change quickly.
One Democratic senator told us that some colleagues who want to fold could justify doing so by pointing to the fact that the GOP stopgap funding bill gives Democrats another leverage point in just six weeks. However, this argument would cut against the party’s messaging — the Obamacare premium hikes are imminent and millions of Americans will be forced to pay a lot more or lose their coverage well before Nov. 21.
So Schumer will need to keep tabs on his retiring senators, moderates and those who represent states with high numbers of federal employees.
Schumer spent the weekend burning up the phone lines, as usual. Schumer appeared on CBS’ “Face the Nation,” where he doubled down on the need for bipartisan negotiation on an Obamacare subsidy extension. Schumer said Speaker Mike Johnson “has not committed to any extension and he won’t until the American people force him to.”
The House. In one of the most audacious moves in recent memory, Johnson has the House out of session for the second week in a row during the shutdown.
House members haven’t voted since Sept. 19, which means House Republicans — beyond their leadership and some assorted rank-and-file members — haven’t been in Washington during the middle of what’s now the sixth-longest shutdown in U.S. history. Meanwhile, more than 160 House Democrats were in town last week, according to members and aides.
Johnson held a conference call with House Republicans on Saturday. During the call, Johnson said he’d bring the chamber back when Senate Democrats fold — if they do. Until then, the GOP leadership recommended that Republicans stay in their districts to hold events blaming Democrats for the stalemate.
The House leadership even told committee chairs not to schedule hearings this week in order to make sure lawmakers don’t come to Washington.
The decision here is twofold.
No. 1: House Republican leaders are plenty happy blaming Senate Democrats for the government being closed.
No. 2: GOP leaders simply don’t want their rank-and-file members in Washington. They’re afraid that someone will say something stupid and their message — which has been chiefly expressed by Johnson — will be undercut.
Johnson has said that he’ll give members 48 hours’ notice before any vote.
There’s a House pro forma session today.
Sunday shutdown front pages, via the Freedom Forum. The Tribune (San Luis Obispo, Calif.): “The federal government shut down. How does it affect SLO County?” … Sioux City Journal (South Dakota): “Will the shutdown impact the economy?” … The Sunday Town Talk (Alexandria-Pineville, La.): “Social Security payments will still be made during shutdown” … Reno Gazette-Journal (Reno, Nev.): “SNAP changes set in as government shuts down. How may food stamps in Nevada be affected?” …
… Maine Sunday Telegram (Portland, Me.): “Visiting Acadia During a Shutdown: Empty tollbooths and closed visitor centers don’t deter tourists as the Trump administration considers ‘irreversible’ cuts.”
