Let’s talk about the future of President-elect Donald Trump’s policy agenda on Capitol Hill. There’s a lot going on here already, even before Trump is sworn in on Monday.
First. At 3 p.m. today, the House Republican leadership will host a meeting on tax policy in the upcoming reconciliation package(s) in the Cannon Caucus Room. The room is officially called the Speaker Nancy Pelosi Caucus Room, but House Republicans don’t seem to want to call it that. This meeting is for members only, and attendance is “highly encouraged.” We’ll have all the details out of this meeting later today.
Second. Let’s now discuss Speaker Mike Johnson’s very aggressive timeline for reconciliation. This is going to be a huge lift, despite all the GOP prep work.
In the closed House Republican Conference meeting Tuesday, Johnson presented a slide that said he wants the chamber to pass the budget resolution for reconciliation by Feb. 27. That’s just six weeks from now.
Here’s the pathway: Johnson wants to release the budget resolution and mark it up the week of Feb. 3, with a floor vote the week of Feb. 10. Johnson projects the Senate will consider it during the week of Feb. 17. And then the speaker wants the House to pass the resolution with any Senate’s changes the week of Feb. 24.
Then, in the House Republican leadership’s view, GOP members and senators would spend March crafting the reconciliation package, getting it to Trump’s desk before Easter, which falls on April 20.
In other words, the House GOP leadership is hoping to pass taxes, border security and energy policy between now and April 10, when the House is scheduled to recess for Easter.
During the middle of all that, Congress has to fund the federal government, potentially pass a debt-limit increase and send perhaps tens of billions of dollars to California to help it rebuild after once-in-a-generation wildfires.
We understand the strategy of setting deadlines. They help create urgency. But this is a very aggressive timeline. We’re skeptical that this deadline will hold, as are a lot of Republican lawmakers and aides in private.
A smart man once told us: With Congress, always bet the over. It’s good advice.
Third. The House GOP leadership decided last year to place a government funding fight smack dab in the middle of Trump’s first 100 days. And we must remind you that the government runs out of money on March 14. That’s just 58 days away.
Now consider this: Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune will soon ask Democrats to help them pass a government-funding bill, possibly combined with a four-year debt-limit increase. (Debt limit is falling out of reconciliation, sources tell us). At the same time, they’re going to be passing a budget resolution that chops hundreds of billions — or trillions — from government outlays. This will be a very difficult pill for Democrats to swallow.
Fourth. One of the big issues right now in reconciliation is how Republicans fix the state and local tax deduction. The SALT cap was put in place by Trump and Republicans in the 2017 tax law. All but 13 House Republicans voted for it. And now many blue-state House Republicans want to repeal it.
The bipartisan SALT Caucus met Tuesday afternoon. Republicans involved in the group said the House Ways and Means Committee is working on running models to show how different SALT caps will impact different congressional districts around the country.
After meeting with Trump at Mar-a-Lago over the weekend, Republicans who want SALT relief view their next step as agreeing on a number to push for among themselves. They’d then bring it to GOP colleagues.
The SALT backers might also propose some different ways to offer SALT relief — like allowing more deductions up to a certain income level, for one — rather than just a cap increase.
Meanwhile, Reps. Andrew Garbarino (R-N.Y.) and Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) plan to re-introduce a bill calling for the full repeal of the SALT cap. This is simply laying a marker. It won’t pass the House or become law.
Fifth. In the reconciliation instructions that House Republican leadership is working on, they plan to detail the cuts as a floor instead of a ceiling. In other words, if Republicans want the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee to cut $200 billion, they’ll say the panel should cut “no less than $100 billion.”
That gives House Republicans some more breathing room when crafting their reconciliation bill, especially if they run into any unexpected challenges with spending cuts given the razor-thin House margin.
House floor next week: As California continues to battle devastating wildfires that have killed at least 25 people and destroyed thousands of buildings in Los Angeles, House Republicans plan to bring Rep. Bruce Westerman’s (R-Ark.) Fix Our Forest Act to the floor next week. The bipartisan bill — which passed with 55 Democratic votes in the last Congress — seeks to reshape U.S. forest management processes to mitigate wildfire damage.
House GOP leaders also plan to hold a vote on the Born-Alive Abortion Survivors Protection Act, as well as the Senate version of the Laken Riley Act, which is expected to pass that chamber next week (the House passed its own version). Republicans want to make this immigration bill the first legislation Trump signs into law when he returns to office.