Bursting Democrats' redistricting bubble

IN THIS EDITION

Inside Dems’ redistricting strategy

The Vault: Big Beautiful messaging war launches in Las Vegas

Senate GOP seeks upper hand in FY2026 funding fight

ICYMI: Entertainment’s New Era

Dem group launches $1.5m pro-Ossoff buy

THE TOP

Inside Dems’ redistricting strategy

Happy Friday morning.

House Democrats are preparing a counterstrike in the redistricting wars — but they’re starting at a disadvantage.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and his political team have been looking into all possible options to pursue redistricting in states with full Democratic control, according to a source familiar with his plans.

“We continue to have conversations with the state delegations, whether that’s in California or New York or beyond to explore what the opportunities and possibilities are,” Jeffries told reporters.

Democrats are desperate to push back against President Donald Trump’s brazen attempt to shift the House map in the GOP’s favor. Republicans are trying to muscle through new maps in Texas, Ohio and Missouri, with more red states potentially on deck.

But the two parties aren’t on a level playing field. Over the years, blue states have repeatedly ceded their redistricting authority to commissions. Red states haven’t.

That doesn’t mean that Democrats can’t fight back in the states they control, but it makes the process vastly more complicated. For the most part, Republican governors just have to call their legislatures into special sessions and pass new maps. By comparison, Democrats have to change their state constitutions.

The low-hanging fruit. Maryland, Oregon and Illinois have no redistricting commissions.

Democrats control the governorship and both chambers of the legislatures in these three states. The governors could call a special session and ask the legislature to create a new map.

The gains here would be somewhat limited because there are only five Republicans between the three states.

And courts will be the final arbiters for both parties. For example, in the 2022 cycle, a Maryland court thwarted a Democratic plan targeting Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.), calling it “unconstitutional.”

Changing state constitutions. To strike down redistricting commissions in some big blue states, Democrats would likely have to amend state constitutions. They’d need voters to approve such changes.

These campaigns would be extremely expensive, and the timelines may be too tight for it to succeed. With that in mind, let’s dive into whether and how it could be done.

1) California. Gov. Gavin Newsom has laid out a possible plan in his state. Newsom could call a special election and ask voters to approve a legislatively-referred amendment to undo the commission.

There’s a path here to do this, but it’s pretty narrow. The reward could be a half-dozen new blue seats.

2) New Jersey. The state constitution requires that redistricting be done by a commission. And it explicitly bans mid-decade redistricting.

The state legislature can place an amendment undoing these provisions on the next general election ballot with a three-fifths vote. Democrats have the margins, but the issue is timing.

New Jersey’s constitution says legislators need 20 days notice of a proposed amendment before voting on it. Then the amendment must be advertised in newspapers “not less than three months prior to submission to the people.”

New Jersey’s 2025 elections are on Nov. 4. That three-month deadline is coming up very soon.

3) Colorado. Voters would need to adopt an amendment undoing the independent redistricting commission they approved in 2018.

Colorado voters can place amendments on the ballot by gathering signatures. Timing is again the problem here. The Colorado constitution states that votes on these ballot initiatives “shall be held at the biennial regular general election.” That would mean November 2026, which is too late for the midterms.

4) Washington State. The legislature can reconvene the redistricting commission for a mid-decade remap but only if two-thirds of each chamber agrees. Democrats don’t have a two-thirds majority in the state house or senate.

Democrats would also need Republican votes to amend the constitution. This is a heavy lift.

Using the courts. In some states, Democrats could push for favorable court rulings. But that won’t be easy.

1) New York. Democrats have repeatedly suffered devastating redistricting defeats in the New York State courts. They’ll need better luck in 2026.

The New York constitution bans redistricting again before the next census — unless it is ordered by a court. A lawsuit could get Democrats a court order for a new map. But they will be racing the clock to get that ruling.

Then, Democrats would have to get around their redistricting commission. This isn’t too difficult because the legislature can reject the commission’s work and take it over.

The big caveat here is the courts. In 2022, the state’s highest court struck down Democrats’ map for unconstitutional partisan gerrymandering. This could very well happen again.

2) Utah. A Utah Supreme Court ruling from 2024 gave Democrats renewed hope of picking up a seat. Utah voters sued after their state legislature disregarded a successful ballot initiative that created an independent redistricting commission.

The justices reversed a lower court’s dismissal of part of that lawsuit, sending the case back to that court. This is promising but the court has not yet ruled.

3) Wisconsin. The state Supreme Court declined last month to hear challenges to the Badger State’s current congressional map.

A bipartisan coalition filed a new lawsuit in a lower court in July with the hopes of better reception once it reaches the state Supreme Court. But again, that might not happen in time.

– Ally Mutnick

The Vault: Big Beautiful messaging war launches in Las Vegas

LAS VEGAS — House Republicans are launching their effort to sell the One Big Beautiful Bill to voters, working to change public opinion and win the messaging war during the 15 months before the midterm elections.

The Ways and Means Committee is meeting in Nevada, where “no tax on tips” turned into a central campaign promise for President Donald Trump. By holding the first field hearing on the law here, the committee is sending a clear message about the provisions the GOP should tout.

“We’re back and we’re at the birthplace of no tax on tips,” Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) said. “This is where the president got the idea from his waitress at the Trump Hotel.”

We sat down with Smith for a 30-minute interview here, and we’ll have much more news from that conversation for subscribers in the Sunday Vault. But first, here’s how Smith is thinking about the messaging war over the tax bill.

The sell. Smith pointed to no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, tax cuts for seniors, Trump savings accounts for kids, a bigger maximum child tax credit and expanded standard deduction as pieces that Republicans should focus on when selling the bill.

These are some of the more populist ideas that Trump pitched on the campaign trail. They’re also new, which means Americans will actually feel the difference when they go into effect.

It’s a boost that Smith is counting on. So far, the OBBB’s polling has been underwater. Democrats are messaging aggressively against the bill and hammering cuts to Medicaid, SNAP and clean energy. Smith pointed out the tax cuts he’s encouraging Republicans to tout poll well.

Here’s Smith:

Here’s news: Smith also told us the law’s tax hike on gamblers was a “bad decision” that he wants to reverse. The change allows gamblers to deduct 90% of their losses instead of 100%.

Smith said it’s “absolutely” possible it gets done by year-end and floated it as a potential piece of a broader bipartisan package.

The gambling change is an awkward one for Republicans selling the bill here, and it’s a point Nevada Democrats are sure to keep pressing. Smith voted for the change like almost every congressional Republican, but his strong endorsement of undoing it makes the effort much more viable.

— Laura Weiss

THE SENATE

Senate GOP seeks upper hand in FY2026 funding fight

Senate conservatives are threatening to derail efforts to pass bipartisan government funding bills, stoking new tensions with GOP leaders and jeopardizing Republicans’ push for the upper hand in any shutdown showdown with Democrats.

Senate Republicans are torn between members who want to cut spending using the FY2026 funding bills and are boosting the White House’s push for more rescissions versus institutionalists who want to preserve the bipartisan process.

And as Democrats flirt with forcing a Sept. 30 shutdown and hammer Republicans for backing the White House’s rescissions efforts, Senate Majority Leader John Thune wants to call their bluff by passing bipartisan bills and blaming Democrats if there’s a shutdown.

“If we have a shutdown, I would like for the first time in modern history for it to be blamed on the Democrats,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said. “The way you’re gonna do that is to create a rational, respectful proposal for them to sign onto. That is necessarily not going to achieve what I want to with spending.”

Across the Capitol, House Republicans are largely following a “skinny” budget from the White House that calls for huge cuts to social programs while boosting defense, border security and veterans’ spending. House Democrats have denounced this approach.

All of which means September is going to be a multi-front fight as each faction tries to outmaneuver the other.

Behind the curtain. The internal Senate GOP clash came to a head on Wednesday when, during a closed-door meeting, Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) accused Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) of sexism, as we scooped. Johnson was railing against the spending levels Collins agreed to with Sen. Patty Murray, her Democratic counterpart.

Collins then referenced former male Appropriations Committee chairs — Republicans Thad Cochran and Richard Shelby — and said they didn’t endure the same level of “disrespect.” Collins was backed up by many of her colleagues.

“I’m not trying to butt heads with anybody,” Johnson told us of the episode. “I’m providing information that people don’t like to see.“

Collins hit back at Johnson, telling us the committee’s funding bills are “fiscally responsible” and align with Johnson’s push for a return to pre-pandemic spending levels.

“In fact, the FY2026 appropriations measures being advanced by our committee reflect nondefense budget authority levels that are below the FY2019 levels adjusted for inflation,” Collins said in a statement, adding that Johnson “fails to distinguish between budget authority and outlays.”

GOP senators are also angry at Johnson for seeking to prevent them from taking credit publicly for earmarks. Johnson has been pushing for an amendment that would bar senators from touting earmarks in press releases, advertisements and media appearances or the money would be automatically rescinded.

— Andrew Desiderio, Samantha Handler and John Bresnahan

THE CREATOR ECONOMY

ICYMI: Entertainment’s New Era

Last week, we launched the latest installment of our special project, The Creator Economy, in partnership with YouTube.

In the four-part series, we’re interviewing top content creators about their economic impact and how they’re approaching policy discussions in Washington.

For our second feature, Entertainment’s New Era, we talked with Dude Perfect CEO Andrew Yaffe about how content creators are bringing Hollywood studios — and the jobs and money that come with them — to the suburbs.

We also interviewed Reps. Beth Van Duyne (R-Texas) and Greg Murphy (R-N.C.) on how content creators are spurring the economies in their districts.

Don’t forget to listen to the podcast. And catch up on our first feature, Setting the Stage with Cowboy Kent Rollins.

– Samantha Handler

THE CAMPAIGN

Dem group launches $1.5m pro-Ossoff buy

News: Duty and Honor, a left-wing group associated with the top Democratic super PAC, is launching a $1.5 million ad buy boosting Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) in Georgia.

“They could’ve voted to lower prices, but instead, Washington politicians voted to cut health care and give tax cuts to billionaires,” the ad’s narrator says. “Not Jon Ossoff. He’s working to lower costs for Georgia.”

The spot highlights how Ossoff worked to lower health care prices, housing costs and cut taxes. It’s the latest sign of how Democrats are trying to focus on affordability in their messaging.

North Carolina news: The NRSC is running a new digital ad portraying former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper as a rubber stamp for leftist policies. Cooper is expected to enter the Senate race in the coming weeks.

Florida latest: Darren McAuley, a Democrat running to unseat Rep. Laurel Lee (R-Fla.), raised $115,000 in his campaign’s first 24 hours. Check out McAuley’s consultant team here.

— Max Cohen

MOMENTS

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