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IRAQ, 20 YEARS ON

House GOP opposition to Iraq AUMF repeal softens

News: Top House Republicans appear to be softening their opposition to repealing the Iraq war authorizations, even as it remains unclear whether Speaker Kevin McCarthy will bring it up for a vote.

With the Senate on track to scrap the 1991 and 2002 authorizations for the use of military force (AUMF) against Iraq as soon as this week, attention will then turn to the House. There are more than enough votes to pass the measure in that chamber, but House GOP leaders remain noncommittal about whether they’ll allow a floor vote.

The House passed a repeal of the 2002 Iraq AUMF two years ago, with a significant chunk of Republicans — nearly 50 — backing it. This time around, that number would likely be much higher.

At least one top Republican who voted against a repeal the last time is changing his tune. House Armed Services Committee Chair Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) was previously vehemently opposed repealing the Iraq AUMFs. In June 2021, the Alabama Republican called it “a bad deal for our national security and the safety of American servicemembers overseas.”

But Rogers now says he’s fine with repealing the Iraq authorizations — a sign that other hawkish Republicans could back the measure.

“I don’t have a big problem with [the Iraq AUMF repeals] right now,” Rogers told us in Orlando. “As I understand it, it leaves alone the original [2001] global war on terrorism [AUMF], which is all I really care about.”

In the meantime, McCarthy said this weekend there’s “a clear opportunity” for the repeal bill to come to the floor but added it would have to go through the Foreign Affairs Committee first.

Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), who chairs that panel and opposes repealing the Iraq AUMFs, told us it’s up to McCarthy. McCaul, though, also hinted that he’d try to alter the bill if it comes before his panel.

McCaul has proposed a replacement AUMF that deals with terror groups operating in Iraq, particularly those with ties to Iran. If his committee marks up the Senate bill, McCaul indicated the panel would likely seek to attach a replacement AUMF to it.

“I can mark that up out of my committee and repeal and replace, or they will just put the Senate version on the floor,” McCaul told us in Orlando. “And I guess it would probably pass.”

This is all playing out as the Senate is on track to pass the legislation with a significant bipartisan majority, possibly as soon as Thursday.

Senators will take another procedural vote this evening, followed by negotiations between party leadership on amendment votes.

We’re told the amendments under discussion include several that were considered when the Senate Foreign Relations Committee marked up the repeal bill earlier this month. One from Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), centers on Iran’s military proxies operating in Iraq. Another from Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) would also repeal the 2001 AUMF, which was passed in the wake of 9/11.

Neither amendment passed in committee, and they aren’t expected to succeed on the floor either.

Another amendment in the works would simply reiterate the president’s Article II authority to defend U.S. troops who come under attack in the region, according to sources familiar with the discussions. This could be voice-voted as long as the exact wording doesn’t impact the underlying bill.

— Max Cohen and Andrew Desiderio

SHAKY START

Banks stare down an uncertain week ahead

It’s still too early to say the United States is experiencing a financial crisis, but it’s beginning to feel a bit more like a banking crisis – which is also bad.

All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve Wednesday, where policymakers will decide whether to raise interest rates and by how much.

Economists’ expectations for the Fed have whipsawed wildly since the Federal Open Market Committee’s most recent meeting in February, where policymakers last voted to increase the federal funds rate by 25 basis points.

Any guess about what the Fed will do next was flipped inside-out following the collapse of two large regional banks this month. Fed Chair Jay Powell has been adamant that stamping out inflation is a top priority for the central bank. Mounting financial instability now threatens that objective.

The uncomfortable choice for the Fed is pausing or continuing hikes.

A hike would signal to Wall Street that the FOMC is still committed to pushing down inflation but risks further amplifying the pressure already affecting banks.

A pause could also spook financial markets if investors interpret that as a signal that the Fed is actually quite worried about the banking sector’s stability. So it’s kind of a lose-lose situation here for top Fed officials.

Here are two other things we’re tracking this week:

The House enters the chat

The House was out last week, meaning the Senate did much of the talking on banks. But both chambers will be back this week and are ready to mix it up.

Republicans have made it clear they aren’t itching for new legislation and prefer to focus on combating calls from Democrats to bolster bank regulation. We don’t expect that approach to change unless the banking situation dramatically worsens.

The House Financial Services Committee will host regulators from the Federal Reserve and FDIC on March 29 to talk about the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. And there could be more hearings if some Republicans have their way, as we reported in the PM edition Monday.

One potential area of agreement: Both Republicans and Democrats have talked about expanding federal deposit insurance limits beyond the $250,000 threshold. That would be a big deal, but it’s difficult for us to see a route through Congress to do that at this point.

Bankers, policymakers assemble

The top national banking trade group, the American Bankers Association, picked quite the week to host its annual Washington summit. This will be a high-profile opportunity for lawmakers on every side of bank regulation politics to draw battlelines.

On Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will address the summit at 10 a.m. E.T. Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), a Senate Banking Committee member, will also make an appearance later this morning.

On Wednesday, we’ll hear from several top policymakers in financial services. That includes Senate Banking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and ranking member Tim Scott (R-S.C.), House Financial Services Committee Chair Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) and ranking member Maxine Waters (D-Calif.). Michael Hsu, the acting Comptroller of the Currency, will also address the conference.

– Brendan Pedersen

INSIDE THE GOP RETREAT

Stefanik on Trump, DeSantis and the budget

House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik joined us for an interview Monday evening at the House GOP retreat in Orlando.

Stefanik dished on her recent interaction with former President Donald Trump, her views on Florida GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis’ presidential chances and how House Republicans could cut government spending.

Here are our top takeaways:

Stefanik said she briefed Trump Monday on House Republicans’ plans for an aggressive investigation into Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg.

Here’s Stefanik’s full response on what she told Trump:

Stefanik also took a shot at DeSantis for what she deemed a tepid response to the news of Trump’s potential indictment.

“I think [DeSantis] is going to see slippage in his polls. He’s already seen slippage the past couple of weeks and I think you’re going to see President Trump continue to solidify his position in the Republican nomination,” Stefanik added.

The New York Republican is one of Trump’s staunchest congressional supporters and has already endorsed the former president in his 2024 White House bid.

On debt limit negotiations, Stefanik reiterated that House Republicans wouldn’t touch Medicare and Social Security in their bid to slash federal spending, although not other entitlement programs.

Stefanik noted that every House committee has been tasked with finding potential savings from the programs under their jurisdiction as Republicans seek to cut tens of billions of dollars this year – and trillions over the next decade – from the federal budget.

Reclaiming unspent Covid-19 funds and cutting what she described as “woke ideology” programs in the Defense Department (think climate change) are areas Republicans could find extra money, Stefanik said.

We also had time for some rapid-fire questions. The buffalo chicken salad in Longworth is Stefanik’s favorite food in the Capitol. Her favorite book she’s read recently is “Hamnet” by Maggie O’Farrell and her son’s favorite book is “Goodnight Moon.”

Here is the video of the interview, which aired live on C-Span.

— Max Cohen

THE CAMPAIGN

Campaign committees filed their March FEC reports, which reflect donations in February.

– Jake Sherman

MOMENTS

8:15 a.m.: Speaker Kevin McCarthy will brief the press in Orlando.

9 a.m.: President Joe Biden will get his daily intelligence briefing.

1:15 p.m.: Biden will leave the White House en route to the White House Conservation in Action Summit at the Interior Department.

3 p.m.: Karine Jean-Pierre will brief.

4:30 p.m.: The Bidens will host an Arts and Humanities Award ceremony. Vice President Kamala Harris and Doug Emhoff will attend.

CLIP FILE

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